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EXEL EXEL

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored April 7, 2026
Price at analysis: $42.78
Crucible Score
78.3
A-
Quality × Value Composite
KQI — Quality
77.4
B+
Fundamental Quality Index
KVI — Value
79.8
B+
Valuation Attractiveness Index
Crucible Verdict — EXEL

Exel (EXEL) trades at a 22% discount to fair value despite exceptional financial quality (92) and strong moat durability (85), though weak diversification (45) and market position (54) create vulnerability. The 76% earnings beat rate under CEO Graham Wylie's performance-driven leadership supports the quality thesis. Recent insider selling warrants monitoring as the stock approaches fair value on any recovery.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality
92.0
Growth Profile
68.6
Moat Durability
85.0
Management Effectiveness
77.0
Diversification & Resilience
44.8
Market Position
54.0
Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (44.8)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety
63.0
FCF Yield & Cash Returns
79.1
Relative Valuation
95.0
Growth-Adjusted Value
95.0
Historical Valuation
94.5
Macro Context
51.3

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case
$34.52
Base Case
$52.18
Bull Case
$76.41
Price at Analysis
$42.78
ScenarioFair ValueRev CAGR (5yr)Terminal MarginWACC
🔴 Bear$34.526.0%30.0%6.9%
🟢 Base$52.1810.0%35.0%6.6%
🟢 Bull$76.4114.0%40.0%6.3%
Key Assumptions: WACC is low (6.3-6.9%) driven by EXEL's very low beta of 0.41 and a 5.5% ERP appropriate for biotech. Revenue growth anchored to the 5-year CAGR of ~12.8% with the most recent year showing strong 7% acceleration to $2.32B; bear assumes pipeline setbacks slowing growth to 6%, base continues at 10%, bull assumes label expansions driving 14%. Operating margins trended from 20% to 37.6% over 5 years; bear assumes reversion to ~30% on competition, base stabilizes at 35%, bull expands to 40% on operating leverage. Capex intensity normalized to ~3% of revenue given recent moderation from the elevated 2021-2022 spending.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin96.4%
Operating Margin37.6%
Net Margin33.7%
ROIC27.4%
ROE14.0%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 3.56
Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.09x
Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 1.7%
Altman Z-Score12.62 (Safe)
Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR12.8% CAGR
Earnings CAGR35.7% CAGR
Growth ConsistencyCV: 1.15
Segment Breadth2/6 growing (33%)
Quarterly TrendRev↑, Margin↑, WC↓, Exp↓
Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOGraham Wylie · 8 years
CEO Ownership2.8%
Compensation90% performance-based
Insider ActivitySelling
Capital AllocationROIC 27.4% vs WACC 6.8%
Earnings Beat Rate76% (16/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+PCTY75.8B+
MethodologyAll ScoresCrucible BriefsPerformance@KaladinCI

Analysis conducted April 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.

© 2026 Kaladin Capital Intelligence — Conviction Through Scrutiny