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TTD TTD

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored April 7, 2026
Price at analysis: $21.85
Crucible Score
78.0
B+
Quality × Value Composite
KQI — Quality
76.6
B+
Fundamental Quality Index
KVI — Value
78.9
B+
Valuation Attractiveness Index
Crucible Verdict — TTD

TTD earns a solid B+ rating driven by exceptional moat durability (88) and strong growth prospects (85), though management effectiveness (66) and poor diversification (38) create notable weaknesses. The stock trades at a 27% discount to fair value despite an impressive 85% earnings beat rate over 22 quarters. The valuation gap suggests the market underappreciates TTD's competitive positioning in programmatic advertising.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality
78.9
Growth Profile⚠
84.8
Moat Durability
88.5
Management Effectiveness⚠
65.8
Diversification & Resilience
38.2
Market Position
73.0
Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (38.2)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety
66.2
FCF Yield & Cash Returns
84.5
Relative Valuation
78.8
Growth-Adjusted Value
86.5
Historical Valuation
94.5
Macro Context
76.2

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case
$15.42
Base Case
$27.83
Bull Case
$46.19
Price at Analysis
$21.85
ScenarioFair ValueRev CAGR (5yr)Terminal MarginWACC
🔴 Bear$15.4210.0%18.0%10.4%
🟢 Base$27.8314.0%22.0%9.8%
🟢 Bull$46.1918.0%26.0%9.2%
Key Assumptions: Revenue grew at ~25% CAGR over the trailing 5 years from ~$1.2B to ~$2.9B with operating margins expanding from ~10% to ~20%. Base case assumes growth moderates to ~14% CAGR over the next 5 years as programmatic advertising matures, with terminal operating margins of 22% reflecting continued scale benefits but competitive pressure. WACC of 9.2-10.4% reflects beta of 1.17 with equity risk premium of 5.5% applied across scenarios with modest adjustments for risk.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin78.6%
Operating Margin20.3%
Net Margin15.3%
ROIC12.7%
ROE14.8%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.61
Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.78x
Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 6.8%
Altman Z-Score2.79 (Grey)
Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR24.7% CAGR
Earnings CAGR33.9% CAGR
Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.35
Segment BreadthInsufficient segments
Quarterly TrendRev↘+14%, Margin↑, Exp↓
Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOJohn Battelle · 16 years
CEO Ownership48.6%
Insider ActivityStrong Buying
Capital AllocationROIC 12.7% vs WACC 11.0%
Earnings Beat Rate85% (19/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-PCTY75.8B+
MethodologyAll ScoresCrucible BriefsPerformance@KaladinCI

Analysis conducted April 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.

© 2026 Kaladin Capital Intelligence — Conviction Through Scrutiny