MTCH MTCH

Name: MTCH Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored April 7, 2026

Price at analysis: $31.44

Crucible Score

78.2

A-

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

73.8

B+

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

84.1

A-

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — MTCH

Match Group (MTCH) trades at a compelling 35% discount to fair value despite its durable competitive moat in online dating and strong value metrics. The A- rated company suffers from weak management effectiveness and limited diversification, with insiders selling shares even as the stock appears undervalued. The valuation gap suggests either hidden risks or a buying opportunity for patient investors.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

78.8

Growth Profile

70.7

Moat Durability⚠

85.8

Management Effectiveness

59.6

Diversification & Resilience⚠

56.0

Market Position

72.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (56.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

74.1

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

87.6

Relative Valuation

89.4

Growth-Adjusted Value

84.0

Historical Valuation

94.5

Macro Context

95.0

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$25.18

Base Case

$42.53

Bull Case

$65.72

Price at Analysis

$31.44

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$25.18	3.0%	23.0%	11.2%
🟢 Base	$42.53	5.0%	26.0%	10.4%
🟢 Bull	$65.72	8.0%	30.0%	9.7%

Key Assumptions: MTCH has shown modest revenue growth (~3-5% CAGR over 5 years) with volatile operating margins ranging from 16-29%, averaging ~24%. WACC calculated using CAPM with 4.31% risk-free rate, 1.30 beta, and 5.5% ERP yielding ~11.5% cost of equity, blended with after-tax cost of debt (~5%) at ~55% debt weighting given negative equity and ~$3.9B debt. Net debt of ~$2.95B is subtracted from enterprise value across all scenarios. FCF conversion has been strong historically at ~29% of revenue, anchoring base case projections.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin72.8%

Operating Margin25.0%

Net Margin17.6%

ROIC18.1%

ROE-464.2%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.42

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.67x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 1.6%

Altman Z-Score0.65 (Distress)

Piotroski F-Score8/9 (Strong)

Growth

Revenue CAGR31.1% CAGR

Earnings CAGR17.2% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 2.23

Segment Breadth2/2 growing (100%)

Quarterly TrendMargin↑, WC↓, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityTends to Beat

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOShar Dubey · 6 years

CEO Ownership< 1%

Compensation93% performance-based

Insider ActivitySelling

Capital AllocationROIC 18.1% vs WACC 2.9%

Earnings Beat Rate67% (14/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-TTD78.0B+PCTY75.8B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted April 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.