ADSK ADSK

Name: ADSK Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored March 24, 2026

Price at analysis: $235.42

Crucible Score

70.4

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

79.8

A-

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

57.7

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — ADSK

Autodesk delivers strong operational execution with an impressive 22/22 earnings beat streak and robust quality metrics, though ADSK trades at a 18% discount to fair value despite its 87-rated competitive moat in design software. The stock presents a compelling entry point given the valuation gap and consistent financial performance, making it attractive for investors seeking exposure to digital transformation trends.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

82.4

Growth Profile

81.7

Moat Durability

87.1

Management Effectiveness

67.3

Diversification & Resilience

81.2

Market Position

63.0

Weakest dimension: Market Position (63.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

69.9

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

50.6

Relative Valuation

54.2

Growth-Adjusted Value

27.0

Historical Valuation

94.5

Macro Context

46.8

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$189.52

Base Case

$278.14

Bull Case

$385.67

Price at Analysis

$235.42

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$189.52	8.0%	27.0%	12.2%
🟢 Base	$278.14	11.0%	30.0%	12.2%
🟢 Bull	$385.67	14.0%	33.0%	12.2%

Key Assumptions: WACC of 12.21% derived from CAPM using 4.39% risk-free rate, 1.47 beta, and 5.3% ERP reflecting software sector risk. Revenue growth anchored to 5-year historical CAGR of ~13%, with bear assuming deceleration to 8% and bull sustaining 14% on AI/cloud tailwinds. Operating margins trend from current ~25% toward 27-33% terminal range, reflecting ADSK's subscription model leverage but tempered by ongoing R&D investment; FCF conversion remains strong given minimal capex intensity (~0.7% of revenue) consistent with historical patterns.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin92.0%

Operating Margin23.4%

Net Margin15.6%

ROIC18.6%

ROE41.0%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 0.85

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 2.14x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 0.6%

Altman Z-Score4.10 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score8/9 (Strong)

Growth

Revenue CAGR13.1% CAGR

Earnings CAGR22.6% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.47

Segment Breadth5/5 growing (100%)

Quarterly TrendMargin↑, WC↓, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOInga Beale · 3 years

CEO Ownership< 1%

Compensation95% performance-based

Insider ActivitySelling

Capital AllocationROIC 18.6% vs WACC 12.6%

Earnings Beat Rate100% (22/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

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ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 24, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.