AppLovin Corporation APP

Name: APP Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

TechnologySoftware - ApplicationNASDAQ📅 Scored March 14, 2026

Price at analysis: $436.69

Crucible Score

58.0

C+

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

74.8

B+

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

37.6

D-

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — APP

AppLovin Corporation (APP) presents a stark quality-versus-value disconnect, with exceptional financial metrics (95 quality score) and consistent earnings beats (97% rate) offset by significant overvaluation at 12% above fair value. The mobile advertising platform's strong fundamentals and performance-based CEO compensation can't justify current pricing. Investors should wait for a pullback closer to the $385 base case before considering entry.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

94.7

Growth Profile

80.9

Moat Durability

55.4

Management Effectiveness

80.2

Diversification & Resilience

56.2

Market Position

68.0

Weakest dimension: Moat Durability (55.4)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

28.0

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

37.7

Relative Valuation

18.1

Growth-Adjusted Value

65.8

Historical Valuation

72.2

Macro Context

5.0

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$228.45

Base Case

$385.12

Bull Case

$612.78

Price at Analysis

$436.69

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$228.45	10.0%	45.0%	17.9%
🟢 Base	$385.12	15.0%	55.0%	16.9%
🟢 Bull	$612.78	20.0%	65.0%	15.9%

Key Assumptions: WACC is driven by APP's high beta of 2.50 with a 5.5% ERP, yielding a CAPM cost of equity near 18%. Revenue grew from $2.8B to $5.5B over 5 years with explosive recent acceleration; base case assumes 15% 5-yr CAGR moderating to high single digits by year 10. Operating margins expanded dramatically from negative to 76%, reflecting the high-margin software/advertising model; terminal margins range from 45% (bear) to 65% (bull) acknowledging potential competitive pressures or continued dominance. Capex intensity is negligible at ~0.5% of revenue consistent with asset-light software model.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin86.5%

Operating Margin68.5%

Net Margin57.4%

ROIC56.3%

ROE52.8%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 3.32

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.18x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 0.5%

Altman Z-Score21.60 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score8/9 (Strong)

Growth

Revenue CAGR18.4% CAGR

Earnings CAGR130.0% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.86

Segment Breadth1/1 growing (100%)

Quarterly TrendRev→+21%, Margin↑, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Analyst Price Targets

Avg Target (Last Quarter)$688.00

Analysts Covering (Quarter)20

Avg Target (Last Year)$668.53

Analysts (Year)40

Leadership & Governance

CEOTobias Meagher · 3 years

CEO Ownership65.1%

Compensation96% performance-based

Insider ActivitySelling

Capital AllocationROIC 56.3% vs WACC 4.6%

Earnings Beat Rate97% (21/22)

◆ Company Profile

AppLovin Corporation engages in building a software-based platform for mobile app developers to enhance the marketing and monetization of their apps in the United States and internationally. The company's software solutions include AppDiscovery, a marketing software solution, which matches advertiser demand with publisher supply through auctions; Adjust, an analytics platform that helps marketers grow their mobile apps with solutions for measuring, optimizing campaigns, and protecting user data; and MAX, an in-app bidding software that optimizes the value of an app's advertising inventory by running a real-time competitive auction.

CEO

Adam Arash Foroughi

Employees

1533

Headquarters

Palo Alto, CA, US

IPO Date

April 15, 2021

Exchange

NASDAQ

Website

applovin.com

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Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 14, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.