ASML Holding N.V. ASML

Name: ASML Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

TechnologySemiconductorsNASDAQ📅 Scored March 7, 2026

Price at analysis: $1393.89

Crucible Score

55.9

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

73.1

B+

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

38.3

D-

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — ASML

ASML Holding dominates the semiconductor equipment market with an unmatched position (99 score) and strong financial metrics, but trades at a steep premium that creates significant downside risk to $872 in adverse scenarios. The quality-value disconnect reflects investor optimism around AI demand that may not justify current levels. Watch growth acceleration to support the valuation premium.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

89.4

Growth Profile

44.2

Moat Durability

73.8

Management Effectiveness⚠

72.9

Diversification & Resilience

49.2

Market Position

99.0

Weakest dimension: Growth Profile (44.2)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

51.8

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

24.7

Relative Valuation

36.0

Growth-Adjusted Value

41.1

Historical Valuation

26.0

Macro Context

37.8

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$872.50

Base Case

$1485.00

Bull Case

$2310.00

Price at Analysis

$1393.89

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$872.50	8.0%	32.0%	12.3%
🟢 Base	$1485.00	12.0%	35.0%	11.8%
🟢 Bull	$2310.00	16.0%	38.0%	11.3%

Key Assumptions: WACC derived using CAPM with 4.39% risk-free rate, 1.43 beta, and 5.5% ERP yielding ~11.3-12.3% depending on scenario-specific capital structure adjustments. Revenue growth anchored to trailing 5-year CAGR of ~15% with ASML's EUV monopoly supporting sustained demand, though cyclicality and export restrictions temper the bear case. Operating margins reflect historical range of 31-36%, with bear assuming competitive and regulatory headwinds compress margins while bull assumes continued pricing power and operating leverage from High-NA EUV ramp.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin52.8%

Operating Margin34.6%

Net Margin29.4%

ROIC33.4%

ROE37.4%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.26

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.15x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 4.6%

Altman Z-Score10.57 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score8/9 (Strong)

Growth

Revenue CAGR-35.3% CAGR (suspect)

Earnings CAGR-36.4% CAGR (suspect)

Growth ConsistencyCV: 5.42

Segment Breadth9/13 growing (69%)

Quarterly TrendRev∆, Margin↓, Cash↓, WC↓, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityTends to Beat

◆ Revenue Breakdown — FY2025

By Segment

NXE42.7%

Arf immersion42.1%

EXE4.7%

Krf4.1%

Metrology and inspection3.4%

Arf Dry1.7%

I-Line1.3%

By Geography

CHINA29.6%

TAIWAN25.9%

KOREA, REPUBLIC OF25.4%

UNITED STATES12.7%

JAPAN4.4%

SINGAPORE1.9%

NETHERLANDS0.0%

Rest Of Asia0.0%

Total Revenue

$32.1B

Fiscal Year 2025

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Analyst Price Targets

Avg Target (Last Quarter)$1588.71

Analysts Covering (Quarter)7

Avg Target (Last Year)$1362.17

Analysts (Year)12

Leadership & Governance

CEOChristophe Fouquet · 5 years

CEO Ownership5.1%

Insider ActivityNeutral

Capital AllocationROIC 33.4% vs WACC 12.4%

Earnings Beat Rate70% (15/22)

◆ Company Profile

ASML Holding N. V.

CEO

Christophe D. Fouquet

Employees

43129

Headquarters

Veldhoven, NL

IPO Date

March 15, 1995

Exchange

NASDAQ

Website

asml.com

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Technology companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.