ATI ATI
UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored April 5, 2026
Price at analysis: $146.63
Crucible Score
45.4
C-Quality × Value Composite
KQI — Quality
59.4
C+Fundamental Quality Index
KVI — Value
28.3
FValuation Attractiveness Index
Crucible Verdict — ATI
ATI trades near fair value at $147 versus a $149 base case, but the 28.3 value score reveals limited upside potential despite decent operational metrics. The company's 80% earnings beat rate and strong market position (72) are undermined by insider selling and mediocre growth prospects. ATI appears fairly priced for a business lacking compelling catalysts.
— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence
◆ KQI Quality Dimensions
Financial Quality
63.4
Growth Profile
45.5
Moat Durability
58.5
Management Effectiveness
63.6
Diversification & Resilience⚠
51.0
Market Position
72.0
Weakest dimension: Growth Profile (45.5)
◆ KVI Value Dimensions
DCF Margin of Safety
50.8
FCF Yield & Cash Returns
22.3
Relative Valuation
20.2
Growth-Adjusted Value
13.7
Historical Valuation
8.4
Macro Context
31.2
◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios
Bear Case
$95.42
Base Case
$148.73
Bull Case
$218.56
Price at Analysis
$146.63
| Scenario | Fair Value | Rev CAGR (5yr) | Terminal Margin | WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | $95.42 | 4.0% | 12.0% | 10.3% |
| 🟢 Base | $148.73 | 6.0% | 14.0% | 9.3% |
| 🟢 Bull | $218.56 | 8.0% | 16.0% | 8.8% |
Key Assumptions: Revenue growth anchored to 5-year CAGR of ~13% but decelerating as ATI matures off cyclical recovery; operating margins stabilize around 12-16% reflecting recent improvement from 4% to 14% range. WACC uses CAPM with beta of 1.0 and equity risk premium of 5.5-6.0% adjusted for ATI's leverage (~1x net debt/EBITDA). Capex intensity normalized at ~5.8% of revenue consistent with recent 5-6% range, with D&A roughly matching capex at terminal state.
◆ Financial Snapshot
Profitability
Gross Margin22.2%
Operating Margin14.0%
Net Margin8.8%
ROIC12.2%
ROE-20.1%
Balance Sheet
Balance SheetCR: 2.66
Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.83x
Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 6.1%
Altman Z-Score5.62 (Safe)
Piotroski F-Score8/9 (Strong)
Growth
Revenue CAGR-36.4% CAGR (suspect)
Earnings CAGR-31.6% CAGR (suspect)
Growth ConsistencyCV: 7.10
Segment Breadth1/2 growing (50%)
Quarterly TrendRev∆, WC↓
Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater
◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership
Leadership & Governance
CEO Ownership< 1%
Compensation92% performance-based
Insider ActivitySelling
Capital AllocationROIC 12.2% vs WACC 4.0%
Earnings Beat Rate80% (16/22)
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Analysis conducted April 5, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.
Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.
© 2026 Kaladin Capital Intelligence — Conviction Through Scrutiny