AXP AXP

Name: AXP Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored March 18, 2026

Price at analysis: $300.23

Crucible Score

62.0

C+

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

60.9

C+

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

63.4

C+

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — AXP

American Express (AXP) delivers solid financial quality and market positioning but stumbles on growth execution, earning a middling C+ rating. The stock trades near fair value at $300 versus a $312 base case, offering limited upside despite strong earnings consistency under CEO Squeri's tenure. Investors should monitor whether management can reignite growth momentum to justify the premium valuation.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

73.3

Growth Profile

48.2

Moat Durability⚠

55.7

Management Effectiveness

54.9

Diversification & Resilience

75.8

Market Position

74.0

Weakest dimension: Growth Profile (48.2)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

57.4

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

85.5

Relative Valuation

61.0

Growth-Adjusted Value

62.4

Historical Valuation

34.2

Macro Context

81.4

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$218.50

Base Case

$312.40

Bull Case

$435.80

Price at Analysis

$300.23

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$218.50	6.0%	15.5%	10.8%
🟢 Base	$312.40	9.0%	17.5%	10.1%
🟢 Bull	$435.80	12.0%	19.5%	9.3%

Key Assumptions: Revenue growth anchored to 5-year historical CAGR of ~16% but moderated given AXP's maturing scale; operating margins reflect the 15.6%-24.1% historical range with base case near the 17% recent average. WACC derived from CAPM using 4.39% risk-free rate, 1.15 beta, and 5.5% ERP (10.72% cost of equity) blended with after-tax cost of debt ~4.5% at ~63/37 equity-debt mix. AXP is a financial services company where reported operating CF includes credit provisioning dynamics, so FCF conversion is adjusted conservatively relative to headline cash flows.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin83.2%

Operating Margin17.1%

Net Margin13.5%

ROIC8.4%

ROE27.8%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 0.28

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.48x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 3.0%

Altman Z-Score0.51 (Distress)

Piotroski F-Score7/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR-1.8% CAGR

Earnings CAGR7.7% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 6.21

Segment Breadth4/4 growing (100%)

Quarterly TrendMargin↓↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOStephen J. Squeri · 8 years

CEO Ownership41.6%

Compensation78% performance-based

Insider ActivityNeutral

Capital AllocationROIC 8.4% vs WACC 11.3%

Earnings Beat Rate76% (16/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

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ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 18, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.