Booking Holdings Inc. BKNG

Name: BKNG Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored March 14, 2026

Price at analysis: $4237.75

Crucible Score

74.5

B+

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

79.5

A-

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

68.5

B-

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — BKNG

Booking Holdings Inc. earns a solid B+ rating driven by exceptional moat durability (86) and financial quality (83), though BKNG trades at a 13% discount to fair value despite CEO Glenn Fogel's perfect 22-quarter earnings beat streak. The company's weak diversification score (48) represents its primary vulnerability in an increasingly competitive travel landscape. This quality-at-a-discount setup rewards patient investors willing to ride travel cycle volatility.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

83.3

Growth Profile

76.2

Moat Durability⚠

86.2

Management Effectiveness

80.4

Diversification & Resilience⚠

48.0

Market Position

74.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (48.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

67.3

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

79.5

Relative Valuation

42.4

Growth-Adjusted Value

77.6

Historical Valuation

82.4

Macro Context

61.0

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$3412.00

Base Case

$4785.00

Bull Case

$6520.00

Price at Analysis

$4237.75

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$3412.00	6.0%	32.0%	11.2%
🟢 Base	$4785.00	9.0%	35.0%	10.6%
🟢 Bull	$6520.00	12.0%	38.0%	10.0%

Key Assumptions: WACC derived using CAPM with 4.39% risk-free rate, 1.23 beta, and 5.5% ERP (base), yielding ~10.6% base WACC; bear/bull scenarios shift ERP by +/-50bps. Revenue growth decelerates from recent ~13% CAGR toward mid-single digits in bear and low-double digits in bull, reflecting travel market maturation and competitive dynamics. Operating margins anchored to trailing 27-35% range with modest expansion in base/bull given platform scale and mix shift toward merchant revenues, while bear assumes regulatory and competitive margin pressure.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin99.3%

Operating Margin32.9%

Net Margin20.1%

ROIC50.3%

ROE-10.0%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.33

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.68x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 1.2%

Altman Z-Score6.39 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score7/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR25.2% CAGR

Earnings CAGR46.8% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 1.91

Segment Breadth2/3 growing (67%)

Quarterly TrendRev∆, Margin↑, WC↓, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOGlenn Fogel · 9 years

CEO Ownership< 1%

Compensation99% performance-based

Insider ActivitySelling

Capital AllocationROIC 50.3% vs WACC 6.6%

Earnings Beat Rate100% (22/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 14, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.