Dutch Bros Inc. BROS

Name: BROS Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored March 14, 2026

Price at analysis: $51.33

Crucible Score

51.0

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

66.4

B-

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

32.2

D-

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — BROS

Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) presents a stark quality-value disconnect, with solid operational metrics (66.4 KQI) undermined by poor value characteristics (32.2 KVI) that drag the overall score to a mediocre 51. The coffee chain's strong growth profile (86) and moat durability (75) are offset by concerning diversification weakness (19) and modest market position. BROS trades slightly above fair value, leaving little margin of safety for execution missteps.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

61.7

Growth Profile

85.7

Moat Durability⚠

74.7

Management Effectiveness

68.9

Diversification & Resilience

18.8

Market Position

44.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (18.8)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

39.3

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

9.1

Relative Valuation

5.0

Growth-Adjusted Value

51.7

Historical Valuation

84.4

Macro Context

14.0

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$28.45

Base Case

$48.72

Bull Case

$78.60

Price at Analysis

$51.33

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$28.45	12.0%	10.0%	18.3%
🟢 Base	$48.72	16.0%	13.0%	17.8%
🟢 Bull	$78.60	20.0%	16.0%	17.3%

Key Assumptions: WACC of ~18% reflects BROS's high beta of 2.55 applied to a 5.5% ERP plus 4.39% risk-free rate, with modest debt cost benefit given net debt of ~$820M. Revenue growth anchored on 5-year CAGR of ~35% decelerating to 12-20% over projection period as store expansion matures. Operating margins projected to expand from current ~10% toward 10-16% terminal levels reflecting scale benefits, with capex intensity declining from ~15% of revenue as the store base matures.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin25.9%

Operating Margin9.8%

Net Margin4.9%

ROIC4.7%

ROE6.5%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.49

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.68x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 14.7%

Altman Z-Score3.14 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR34.7% CAGR

Earnings CAGR29.5% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.24

Segment Breadth2/2 growing (100%)

Quarterly TrendRev↑, Margin↓↓, WC↓, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOJack DAboub · 5 years

CEO Ownership74.6%

Compensation67% performance-based

Insider ActivityNeutral

Capital AllocationROIC 4.7% vs WACC 2.1%

Earnings Beat Rate95% (20/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 14, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.