BURL BURL

Name: BURL Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored April 7, 2026

Price at analysis: $325.74

Crucible Score

56.7

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

61.6

C+

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

50.7

C-

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — BURL

BURL presents a mixed investment case with a modest quality score of 61.6 offset by weak value metrics at 50.7, trading essentially at fair value around $326. The company's standout 76 moat durability score contrasts sharply with concerning diversification weaknesses at just 12, while insider selling raises additional red flags. BURL's narrow operational focus creates both competitive advantages and concentrated risk exposure.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

65.1

Growth Profile⚠

59.1

Moat Durability⚠

76.5

Management Effectiveness⚠

61.8

Diversification & Resilience

12.0

Market Position

43.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (12.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

48.3

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

27.8

Relative Valuation

61.1

Growth-Adjusted Value

76.4

Historical Valuation

52.9

Macro Context

38.0

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$198.50

Base Case

$328.00

Bull Case

$485.00

Price at Analysis

$325.74

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$198.50	5.0%	7.0%	13.4%
🟢 Base	$328.00	8.0%	8.5%	12.7%
🟢 Bull	$485.00	10.0%	10.0%	12.2%

Key Assumptions: WACC of ~12.7% reflects CAPM with 4.35% risk-free rate, 1.62 beta, and 5.25% ERP given consumer cyclical risk. Revenue growth anchored to historical ~7-8% CAGR with BURL's store expansion strategy; operating margins range from 7% (bear, reflecting margin compression from tariffs/competition) to 10% (bull, reflecting scale leverage). Capex intensity assumed to moderate from recent ~9% of revenue toward 7-8% as store base matures, with heavy lease-adjusted capital structure keeping net debt elevated.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin41.9%

Operating Margin8.9%

Net Margin5.3%

ROIC8.4%

ROE36.7%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.23

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.38x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 9.2%

Altman Z-Score3.05 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR5.5% CAGR

Earnings CAGR10.5% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 2.05

Segment BreadthInsufficient segments

Quarterly TrendRev∆, Margin↑, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEORiccardo Sartori · 5 years

CEO Ownership1.3%

Insider ActivitySelling

Capital AllocationROIC 8.4% vs WACC 0.9%

Earnings Beat Rate83% (17/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted April 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.