CMG CMG

Name: CMG Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored April 7, 2026

Price at analysis: $32.98

Crucible Score

67.2

B-

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

73.7

B+

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

59.2

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — CMG

CMG earns a solid B- grade driven by strong fundamentals including an impressive 81 moat durability score and 77% earnings beat rate under CEO Brian Niccol's leadership. The stock trades at a 16% discount to fair value despite quality metrics, though concerning insider selling and extremely low diversification (26) present risk factors. The valuation gap offers upside potential if execution continues.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

79.5

Growth Profile

75.9

Moat Durability⚠

81.1

Management Effectiveness

69.3

Diversification & Resilience

26.2

Market Position

76.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (26.2)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

63.9

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

43.5

Relative Valuation

51.0

Growth-Adjusted Value

60.3

Historical Valuation

94.5

Macro Context

49.9

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$24.50

Base Case

$38.20

Bull Case

$55.80

Price at Analysis

$32.98

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$24.50	6.0%	15.5%	9.9%
🟢 Base	$38.20	9.0%	17.5%	9.4%
🟢 Bull	$55.80	12.0%	19.5%	8.9%

Key Assumptions: Revenue grew at ~12% CAGR over the trailing 5 years with operating margins expanding from 10.7% to 16.9%; base case assumes moderation to ~9% revenue CAGR as unit growth normalizes and margins stabilize near 17.5%. Bear case reflects macro headwinds compressing margins back toward 15.5% with slower store openings, while bull case assumes continued international expansion and menu pricing power driving 12% growth with margins approaching 19.5%. WACC derived from CAPM using 4.35% risk-free rate, 1.06 beta, and 4.5-5.2% equity risk premium across scenarios; high lease-adjusted debt structure considered.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin25.4%

Operating Margin16.9%

Net Margin12.9%

ROIC18.7%

ROE26.8%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.23

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.94x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 5.6%

Altman Z-Score6.44 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR12.1% CAGR

Earnings CAGR23.8% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.43

Segment Breadth1/2 growing (50%)

Quarterly TrendRev↑, Margin↓↓, WC↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOBrian Niccol · 2 years

CEO Ownership< 1%

Compensation86% performance-based

Insider ActivitySelling

Capital AllocationROIC 18.7% vs WACC 10.4%

Earnings Beat Rate77% (15/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted April 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.