CTRA CTRA

Name: CTRA Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored April 7, 2026

Price at analysis: $34.99

Crucible Score

54.4

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

54.1

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

54.7

C-

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — CTRA

Crucible Score reflects CTRA's weak market positioning and alarming lack of diversification, with both dimensions scoring well below average despite solid financial quality metrics. The stock trades at a 14% discount to fair value, but the 43% earnings beat rate and poor competitive moat suggest execution remains inconsistent. Management's ability to strengthen market share will determine whether this valuation gap closes favorably.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

69.7

Growth Profile⚠

58.3

Moat Durability⚠

49.6

Management Effectiveness⚠

61.5

Diversification & Resilience⚠

12.0

Market Position

30.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (12.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

66.1

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

63.2

Relative Valuation

71.2

Growth-Adjusted Value

22.0

Historical Valuation

20.6

Macro Context

63.5

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$27.42

Base Case

$39.85

Bull Case

$56.18

Price at Analysis

$34.99

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$27.42	3.0%	35.0%	6.2%
🟢 Base	$39.85	5.0%	42.0%	5.8%
🟢 Bull	$56.18	8.0%	50.0%	5.5%

Key Assumptions: WACC is low (5.5-6.2%) driven by CTRA's very low beta of 0.27 and current risk-free rate of 4.35%, yielding CAPM cost of equity around 5.7-5.9%. Revenue base anchored to most recent year (~$3.7B) reflecting post-commodity-cycle normalization, with modest growth reflecting production volume increases and moderate commodity price recovery. Capex intensity set at 35% of revenue consistent with historical average of 30-40%, and operating margins range from 35% (bear) to 50% (bull) bracketing the 5-year range of 25-89%.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin36.2%

Operating Margin29.4%

Net Margin23.3%

ROIC7.5%

ROE13.0%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.19

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.95x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 86.8%

Altman Z-Score2.69 (Grey)

Piotroski F-Score5/9 (Mixed)

Growth

Revenue CAGR18.7% CAGR

Earnings CAGR10.3% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 1.85

Segment BreadthInsufficient segments

Quarterly TrendRev∆, Margin↓, WC↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Misser

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOJack B. Moore · 5 years

CEO Ownership36.8%

Insider ActivityNeutral

Capital AllocationROIC 7.5% vs WACC 4.0%

Earnings Beat Rate43% (9/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted April 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.