CVNA CVNA

Name: CVNA Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored April 7, 2026

Price at analysis: $309.97

Crucible Score

45.4

C-

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

56.6

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

31.7

D-

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — CVNA

Carvana (CVNA) scores poorly across most metrics with a C- rating, dragged down by terrible diversification and resilience capabilities alongside weak market positioning. The stock trades 29% above fair value despite these structural weaknesses, though management's strong earnings execution record provides some credibility. The valuation premium looks unjustified given the fundamental gaps.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

55.2

Growth Profile

81.3

Moat Durability⚠

57.7

Management Effectiveness

55.0

Diversification & Resilience⚠

18.0

Market Position

44.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (18.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

12.4

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

26.0

Relative Valuation

45.1

Growth-Adjusted Value

33.5

Historical Valuation

74.2

Macro Context

42.0

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$112.45

Base Case

$218.73

Bull Case

$385.60

Price at Analysis

$309.97

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$112.45	6.0%	6.0%	25.7%
🟢 Base	$218.73	10.0%	8.0%	24.1%
🟢 Bull	$385.60	14.0%	10.0%	22.5%

Key Assumptions: WACC is very high (22.5-25.7%) driven by CVNA's extreme beta of 3.61 applied to a 5.5% ERP plus 4.35% risk-free rate, yielding ~24% cost of equity; debt cost assumed ~8% with D/E blended weights. Revenue grows from ~$20.3B base reflecting the strong recovery trajectory, with operating margins expanding from ~9% toward 6-10% terminal range across scenarios, reflecting the shift from hyper-growth losses to a maturing but still cyclically exposed used-car platform. Capex intensity normalizes to ~1% of revenue as CVNA has already built out its inspection/reconditioning center network, and the low tax rate reflects significant NOL carryforwards that will shield income for several years.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin20.2%

Operating Margin9.3%

Net Margin6.9%

ROIC-24.2%

ROE24.6%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 4.31

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.63x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 0.7%

Altman Z-Score6.43 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR12.2% CAGR

Earnings CAGR76.8% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.83

Segment Breadth2/2 growing (100%)

Quarterly TrendRev↑, Margin↑, WC↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEORyan Keeton · 4 years

CEO Ownership33.0%

Compensation88% performance-based

Insider ActivitySelling

Earnings Beat Rate85% (19/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

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ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted April 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.