Chevron Corporation CVX

Name: CVX Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored March 14, 2026

Price at analysis: $205.16

Crucible Score

47.0

C-

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

47.7

C-

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

46.3

D+

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — CVX

Chevron Corporation earns a mediocre C- rating, weighed down by weak growth prospects and limited competitive moat despite solid financial health and market position. CVX trades near fair value at $205 versus a $212 base case, offering little upside for the risk. The energy giant's future hinges on capital allocation discipline as traditional oil demand faces long-term headwinds.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

54.1

Growth Profile

38.6

Moat Durability

40.3

Management Effectiveness

52.0

Diversification & Resilience⚠

54.0

Market Position

56.0

Weakest dimension: Growth Profile (38.6)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

56.8

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

49.9

Relative Valuation

74.7

Growth-Adjusted Value

22.0

Historical Valuation

5.5

Macro Context

5.0

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$148.52

Base Case

$212.38

Bull Case

$298.64

Price at Analysis

$205.16

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$148.52	-1.0%	10.0%	8.2%
🟢 Base	$212.38	2.0%	13.0%	7.8%
🟢 Bull	$298.64	4.0%	16.0%	7.5%

Key Assumptions: CVX revenue has been volatile due to commodity price swings, declining from ~$236B peak to ~$156B most recently; base case assumes modest 2% revenue CAGR reflecting moderate oil price recovery and Hess acquisition synergies, with operating margins normalizing around 13% (between the 10-17% historical range). WACC calculated using CAPM with 4.39% risk-free rate, 0.66 beta, and 5.5% ERP yielding ~8% cost of equity, blended with after-tax cost of debt (~4.5%) at ~15% debt weighting. Capex intensity assumed at 8.5% of revenue reflecting CVX's disciplined capital allocation and transition toward lower-carbon investments.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin14.7%

Operating Margin5.5%

Net Margin6.6%

ROIC3.6%

ROE7.8%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.15

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.31x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 9.3%

Altman Z-Score3.48 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score5/9 (Mixed)

Growth

Revenue CAGR4.3% CAGR

Earnings CAGR-5.8% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 3.06

Segment Breadth0/3 growing (0%)

Quarterly TrendRev∆, Margin∆

Earnings CredibilityTends to Beat

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOMike Wirth · 9 years

CEO Ownership< 1%

Compensation89% performance-based

Insider ActivitySelling

Capital AllocationROIC 3.6% vs WACC 2.1%

Earnings Beat Rate67% (14/22)

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ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 14, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.