CoreCivic Inc. CXW

Name: CXW Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored March 17, 2026

Price at analysis: $19.98

Crucible Score

54.6

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

58.0

C+

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

50.4

C-

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — CXW

CoreCivic Inc. (CXW) presents a mixed investment case with modest quality metrics offset by poor diversification fundamentals, as reflected in its C-grade Crucible Score of 54.6. The stock trades near fair value at $20 versus a $21 base estimate, though CXW's 18 Diversification & Resilience score signals vulnerability to regulatory shifts in the private prison industry. Monitor policy changes that could materially impact operational flexibility.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

53.0

Growth Profile

60.5

Moat Durability⚠

65.5

Management Effectiveness⚠

67.4

Diversification & Resilience⚠

18.0

Market Position

46.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (18.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

51.7

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

48.3

Relative Valuation

82.2

Growth-Adjusted Value

14.7

Historical Valuation

52.5

Macro Context

45.7

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$12.45

Base Case

$21.30

Bull Case

$33.18

Price at Analysis

$19.98

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$12.45	1.0%	9.0%	8.6%
🟢 Base	$21.30	3.0%	11.5%	8.0%
🟢 Bull	$33.18	5.0%	14.5%	7.3%

Key Assumptions: CXW operates as a specialty REIT in the private prison sector with historically volatile margins (9-16% operating) and modest revenue growth. Base case assumes gradual revenue recovery toward ~$2.3B with operating margins stabilizing around 11.5%, reflecting the 5-year average trend. WACC uses CAPM with 0.66 beta and a 5.5% ERP given sector-specific political and regulatory risk; net debt of ~$1.1B (avg) is incorporated into enterprise-to-equity bridge. Capex intensity is conservatively set at 4% of revenue based on recent normalization from the elevated Year 1 level.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin23.5%

Operating Margin13.0%

Net Margin5.3%

ROIC8.2%

ROE7.9%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.66

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.46x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 6.4%

Altman Z-Score1.58 (Distress)

Piotroski F-Score7/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR4.4% CAGR

Earnings CAGR20.5% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 2.51

Segment Breadth2/3 growing (67%)

Quarterly TrendRev↑, Margin↑, Cash↓, WC↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

Compensation83% performance-based

Insider ActivitySelling

Capital AllocationROIC 8.2% vs WACC 4.0%

Earnings Beat Rate82% (18/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 17, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.