DDOG DDOG

Name: DDOG Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored March 23, 2026

Price at analysis: $123.29

Crucible Score

55.0

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

69.2

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

37.6

D-

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — DDOG

Datadog presents a classic quality-value mismatch with an exceptional competitive moat (90) and strong growth profile (84) undermined by poor value metrics (37.6 KVI). DDOG trades at a 15% discount to fair value despite a perfect earnings beat streak, but insider selling signals caution. The stock's premium valuation leaves little room for execution missteps in a competitive monitoring market.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

52.8

Growth Profile⚠

84.4

Moat Durability

90.0

Management Effectiveness⚠

52.0

Diversification & Resilience

48.2

Market Position

79.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (48.2)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

62.3

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

23.7

Relative Valuation

12.3

Growth-Adjusted Value

31.5

Historical Valuation

56.8

Macro Context

5.0

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$89.52

Base Case

$142.37

Bull Case

$218.64

Price at Analysis

$123.29

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$89.52	14.0%	20.0%	11.5%
🟢 Base	$142.37	18.0%	25.0%	10.5%
🟢 Bull	$218.64	22.0%	30.0%	9.5%

Key Assumptions: Revenue growth anchored to historical 5-year CAGR of ~35% but decelerating significantly as DDOG scales past $3.4B; FCF margins are exceptionally strong (~29% of revenue) driven by software economics and low capex intensity (~1.5% of revenue). WACC uses CAPM with 5.5% ERP and 1.36 beta yielding ~11.9% cost of equity, blended down modestly given convertible debt structure. Terminal operating margins reflect path toward 20-30% GAAP operating margins as SBC normalizes and scale benefits accrue, well below current FCF margins due to continued SBC adjustment.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin79.9%

Operating Margin-1.3%

Net Margin3.1%

ROIC-34.0%

ROE2.2%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 3.38

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 9.19x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 1.4%

Altman Z-Score10.40 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score5/9 (Mixed)

Growth

Revenue CAGR35.1% CAGR

Earnings CAGR48.9% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.45

Segment BreadthInsufficient segments

Quarterly TrendRev↑, Margin↓↓, WC↓, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOJason Lemkin · 16 years

CEO Ownership35.8%

Insider ActivitySelling

Earnings Beat Rate100% (22/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 23, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.