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Duke Energy Corporation DUK

UtilitiesRegulated ElectricNYSE📅 Scored March 7, 2026
Price at analysis: $128.16
Crucible Score
67.0
B-
Quality × Value Composite
KQI — Quality
66.2
B-
Fundamental Quality Index
KVI — Value
64.9
C+
Valuation Attractiveness Index
Crucible Verdict — DUK

Duke Energy Corporation earns a solid B- rating driven by its strong regulatory moat and dominant market position, though growth prospects remain constrained and diversification lags peers. DUK trades at a modest discount to fair value with insider selling raising some concerns despite consistent earnings beats. The utility's regulated framework provides stability, but investors should monitor capital allocation efficiency under long-tenured leadership.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality
63.3
Growth Profile
58.1
Moat Durability⚠
75.5
Management Effectiveness⚠
63.4
Diversification & Resilience
52.5
Market Position
74.0
Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (52.5)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety
64.8
FCF Yield & Cash Returns
68.9
Relative Valuation
61.3
Growth-Adjusted Value
69.3
Historical Valuation
52.0
Macro Context
78.9

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case
$104.52
Base Case
$136.89
Bull Case
$178.43
Price at Analysis
$128.16
ScenarioFair ValueRev CAGR (5yr)Terminal MarginWACC
🔴 Bear$104.522.5%24.0%7.2%
🟢 Base$136.893.5%26.5%6.7%
🟢 Bull$178.434.5%29.0%6.3%
Key Assumptions: DUK is a regulated utility with consistently negative FCF due to heavy capex (~40-43% of revenue) supporting rate base growth. WACC is low (6.3-7.2%) reflecting the 0.47 beta and regulated utility risk profile with ERP of 5.0%. Revenue growth of 2.5-4.5% reflects regulated rate increases, data center demand tailwinds, and clean energy transition capex flowing into rate base. Operating margins anchored around 24-29% based on historical range of 21-27%, with gradual improvement as new rate base investments earn returns. Terminal value dominates given the perpetual nature of regulated utility cash flows. Net debt of ~$90.6B significantly impacts equity value per share.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin54.0%
Operating Margin26.6%
Net Margin15.3%
ROIC4.1%
ROE7.1%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 0.55
Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 2.48x
Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 43.5%
Altman Z-Score0.73 (Distress)
Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR6.6% CAGR
Earnings CAGR6.2% CAGR
Growth ConsistencyCV: 1.47
Segment Breadth3/7 growing (43%)
Quarterly TrendMargin∆, WC↓
Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Revenue Breakdown — FY2024

By Segment

Electric Utilities and Infrastructure92.0%
Gas Utilities and Infrastructure8.0%

By Geography

United States100.0%
Total Revenue
$29.1B
Fiscal Year 2023

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Analyst Price Targets

Avg Target (Last Quarter)$131.00
Analysts Covering (Quarter)10
Avg Target (Last Year)$134.39
Analysts (Year)23

Leadership & Governance

CEOLynn J. Good · 12 years
CEO Ownership9.5%
Insider ActivitySelling
Capital AllocationROIC 4.1% vs WACC 3.2%
Earnings Beat Rate73% (16/22)

◆ Company Profile

Duke Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, and Commercial Renewables.

CEO
Harry K. Sideris
Employees
26413
Headquarters
Charlotte, NC, US
IPO Date
March 17, 1980
Exchange
NYSE

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Utilities companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+
MethodologyAll ScoresCrucible BriefsPerformance@KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.

© 2026 Kaladin Capital Intelligence — Conviction Through Scrutiny