EXPE EXPE

Name: EXPE Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored April 7, 2026

Price at analysis: $226.09

Crucible Score

75.1

B+

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

72.5

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

78.3

B+

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — EXPE

Expedia Group earns a solid B+ Crucible Score of 75.1, driven by strong financial quality and moat durability both at 80, though EXPE shows concerning weakness in diversification with an 18 rating that exposes the travel platform to sector-specific shocks. Trading at $226 versus a $262 fair value suggests 16% upside, but investors should monitor how management addresses the company's concentrated risk profile.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

79.6

Growth Profile

63.6

Moat Durability⚠

80.4

Management Effectiveness⚠

78.2

Diversification & Resilience⚠

18.0

Market Position

68.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (18.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

64.0

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

88.5

Relative Valuation

90.5

Growth-Adjusted Value

85.6

Historical Valuation

68.8

Macro Context

72.0

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$168.42

Base Case

$262.37

Bull Case

$385.61

Price at Analysis

$226.09

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$168.42	5.0%	13.0%	11.5%
🟢 Base	$262.37	7.0%	15.0%	10.8%
🟢 Bull	$385.61	9.0%	17.0%	10.1%

Key Assumptions: Revenue growth anchored to trailing 5-year CAGR of ~11% but moderated given maturing online travel market; WACC derived from CAPM with 5.5% ERP and 1.33 beta yielding ~10.7% base cost of equity, with bear/bull adjusted +/-67bps. Operating margins projected to expand modestly from current 13.4% given scale benefits, with capex intensity declining slightly from historical ~5.5% of revenue. Net debt of approximately negative $307M (cash exceeds debt) applied to bridge from EV to equity value.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin88.6%

Operating Margin12.9%

Net Margin8.8%

ROIC15.7%

ROE18.4%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 0.73

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 2.86x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 5.2%

Altman Z-Score1.48 (Distress)

Piotroski F-Score8/9 (Strong)

Growth

Revenue CAGR14.4% CAGR

Earnings CAGR222.2% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 2.66

Segment Breadth1/2 growing (50%)

Quarterly TrendMargin↑, Cash↓, WC↓, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOAriane Gorin · 3 years

CEO Ownership31.5%

Insider ActivitySelling

Capital AllocationROIC 15.7% vs WACC 3.5%

Earnings Beat Rate86% (18/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted April 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.