EXR EXR

Name: EXR Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored March 31, 2026

Price at analysis: $133.86

Crucible Score

54.6

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

51.2

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

58.7

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — EXR

Extended Stay America (EXR) trades at an 11% discount to fair value despite solid market positioning and a 75% earnings beat rate over 24 quarters. The REIT's poor diversification score of 22 and weak management effectiveness create structural vulnerabilities that offset its strong market presence. Insider selling activity suggests limited upside conviction even with current valuation support.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

68.6

Growth Profile

48.1

Moat Durability⚠

45.3

Management Effectiveness⚠

43.7

Diversification & Resilience⚠

21.5

Market Position

72.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (21.5)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

64.3

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

63.9

Relative Valuation

50.5

Growth-Adjusted Value

40.7

Historical Valuation

77.8

Macro Context

45.4

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$104.52

Base Case

$148.73

Bull Case

$207.18

Price at Analysis

$133.86

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$104.52	3.0%	40.0%	10.7%
🟢 Base	$148.73	5.0%	44.0%	9.8%
🟢 Bull	$207.18	7.0%	47.0%	8.9%

Key Assumptions: EXR is a self-storage REIT with minimal tax burden (~3%) and very low capex intensity (~0.7% of revenue). Revenue grew rapidly from $1.6B to $3.4B over 5 years driven by acquisitions (Life Storage merger) but organic growth is now decelerating with operating margins compressing from 61% to 44% as the acquired portfolio integrates. WACC uses CAPM with 5.2% ERP for bear, 5.0% for base, and 4.8% for bull reflecting REIT sector characteristics and higher leverage (net debt/EV ~40%). Terminal growth rates reflect inflation-linked storage rental escalators.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin28.4%

Operating Margin44.1%

Net Margin28.8%

ROIC4.8%

ROE16.1%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.28

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.90x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 0.6%

Altman Z-Score1.44 (Distress)

Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR-46.7% CAGR (suspect)

Earnings CAGR4.2% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 19.07

Segment Breadth2/2 growing (100%)

Quarterly TrendRev∆, Margin↓, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityTends to Beat

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEO Ownership< 1%

Insider ActivitySelling

Capital AllocationROIC 4.8% vs WACC 3.4%

Earnings Beat Rate75% (18/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 31, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.