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Comfort Systems USA, Inc. FIX

IndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionNYSEπŸ“… Scored March 7, 2026
Price at analysis: $1470.64
Crucible Score
65.2
B-
Quality Γ— Value Composite
KQI β€” Quality
76.1
B+
Fundamental Quality Index
KVI β€” Value
35.4
D-
Valuation Attractiveness Index
Crucible Verdict β€” FIX

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) presents a classic quality-value disconnect, scoring strong marks on financial health and growth prospects but trading 13% above fair value at current levels. The company's perfect earnings beat streak under CEO Rick Carpenter demonstrates consistent execution, yet weak diversification and modest market position limit defensive capabilities. Watch for margin pressures in a competitive HVAC landscape.

β€” Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

β—† KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality
76.2
Growth Profile
89.4
Moat Durability⚠
80.2
Management Effectiveness
78.3
Diversification & Resilience
39.8
Market Position
58.0
Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (39.8)

β—† KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety
30.8
FCF Yield & Cash Returns
30.4
Relative Valuation
28.1
Growth-Adjusted Value
79.5
Historical Valuation
7.0
Macro Context
23.8

β—† DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case
$785.42
Base Case
$1285.60
Bull Case
$1952.18
Price at Analysis
$1470.64
ScenarioFair ValueRev CAGR (5yr)Terminal MarginWACC
πŸ”΄ Bear$785.427.0%11.0%13.9%
🟒 Base$1285.6010.0%13.0%12.9%
🟒 Bull$1952.1814.0%15.0%11.9%
Key Assumptions: FIX has demonstrated exceptional revenue growth (~24% 5yr CAGR) and margin expansion from 6.1% to 14.4% operating margin, driven by data center, electrical infrastructure, and reshoring tailwinds. WACC is calculated using CAPM with 4.39% risk-free rate, 1.60 beta, and 5.5% ERP yielding ~13.2% cost of equity; with minimal leverage, WACC approximates cost of equity at 12-14% across scenarios. Bear case assumes growth normalizes to high single digits with margin reversion toward 11%; base assumes 10% revenue CAGR with margins stabilizing near 13%; bull assumes continued strong secular demand driving 14% growth with margins expanding to 15%.

β—† Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin24.1%
Operating Margin14.4%
Net Margin11.2%
ROIC32.3%
ROE23.4%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.21
Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.01x
Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 1.7%
Altman Z-Score10.36 (Safe)
Piotroski F-Score8/9 (Strong)

Growth

Revenue CAGR31.2% CAGR
Earnings CAGR63.4% CAGR
Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.47
Segment Breadth8/8 growing (100%)
Quarterly TrendRev↑, Margin↑, Exp↓
Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

β—† Revenue Breakdown β€” FY2025

By Segment

Mechanical Segment73.3%
Electrical Segment26.7%

β—† Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Analyst Price Targets

Avg Target (Last Quarter)$1423.40
Analysts Covering (Quarter)5
Avg Target (Last Year)$1267.00
Analysts (Year)8

Leadership & Governance

CEORick Carpenter Β· 4 years
CEO Ownership1.6%
Compensation87% performance-based
Insider ActivitySelling
Capital AllocationROIC 32.3% vs WACC 0.9%
Earnings Beat Rate100% (22/22)

β—† Company Profile

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. , together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States.

CEO
Brian E. Lane
Employees
18300
Headquarters
Houston, TX, US
IPO Date
June 27, 1997
Exchange
NYSE

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Analysis conducted March 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.

Β© 2026 Kaladin Capital Intelligence β€” Conviction Through Scrutiny