FSLR FSLR

Name: FSLR Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored March 19, 2026

Price at analysis: $193.51

Crucible Score

63.6

B-

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

61.9

C+

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

65.8

B-

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — FSLR

First Solar (FSLR) trades at a 22% discount to fair value despite solid financial quality scores, though the company's severe diversification weakness (20 score) creates meaningful risk concentration in solar markets. The B- rating reflects this tension between decent fundamentals and structural vulnerabilities. FSLR's valuation gap suggests opportunity, but investors should monitor solar demand cycles and the company's ability to expand beyond its core thin-film technology.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

79.3

Growth Profile

58.4

Moat Durability

60.7

Management Effectiveness

60.3

Diversification & Resilience⚠

20.0

Market Position

61.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (20.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

68.0

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

50.6

Relative Valuation

77.9

Growth-Adjusted Value

52.5

Historical Valuation

83.8

Macro Context

91.4

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$148.72

Base Case

$236.45

Bull Case

$358.19

Price at Analysis

$193.51

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$148.72	6.0%	22.0%	13.3%
🟢 Base	$236.45	10.0%	28.0%	12.3%
🟢 Bull	$358.19	14.0%	33.0%	11.3%

Key Assumptions: WACC derived from CAPM using 4.39% risk-free rate, 1.65 beta, and 5.5% ERP yielding ~13.5% cost of equity; adjusted slightly per scenario. Revenue base of ~$5.2B grows at 6-14% reflecting IRA tailwinds and capacity expansion, with operating margins normalizing from the recent 30% peak toward 22-33% depending on scenario as competition and tariff uncertainty weigh on pricing. Capex intensity of ~18% reflects ongoing manufacturing buildout in the US, with an 8% blended tax rate given Section 45X manufacturing credits.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin40.6%

Operating Margin30.6%

Net Margin29.3%

ROIC13.4%

ROE4.8%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 2.67

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.78x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 16.7%

Altman Z-Score4.55 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score8/9 (Strong)

Growth

Revenue CAGR15.6% CAGR

Earnings CAGR40.0% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 2.30

Segment Breadth0/1 growing (0%)

Quarterly TrendRev∆, Margin∆, WC↓

Earnings CredibilityMixed

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOMark Widmar · 10 years

CEO Ownership< 1%

Compensation84% performance-based

Insider ActivitySelling

Capital AllocationROIC 13.4% vs WACC 7.0%

Earnings Beat Rate60% (14/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 19, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.