The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GS

Key Assumptions: Goldman Sachs revenue has been volatile, ranging from ~$65B to ~$127B over the past five years, with operating margins swinging from 10% to 42%. Base case assumes modest 6% revenue CAGR from the ~$125B trailing level with margins normalizing around 17.5%, reflecting the shift toward more stable asset/wealth management revenues but continued capital markets cyclicality. WACC uses CAPM with 5.5% ERP and 1.34 beta; bear case applies a higher ERP of 5.75% while bull uses 4.7%, reflecting varying risk sentiment. Working capital swings are a major driver for GS given its balance sheet intensity, and negative historical OCF years reflect trading asset buildups rather than operational weakness.