Gran Tierra Energy Inc. GTE

Name: GTE Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored March 16, 2026

Price at analysis: $8.85

Crucible Score

45.1

C-

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

32.5

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

60.6

C+

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — GTE

Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE) presents a classic quality-value trade-off with a weak Crucible Score of 45.1 driven by poor financial quality (16) and market position (16), yet trades at a 30% discount to fair value. Strong insider buying and a solid 74% earnings beat rate signal management confidence despite the company's structural weaknesses. GTE remains a speculative play dependent on operational execution and commodity prices.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality⚠

15.8

Growth Profile⚠

52.9

Moat Durability⚠

33.2

Management Effectiveness⚠

44.8

Diversification & Resilience⚠

17.0

Market Position

16.0

Weakest dimension: Financial Quality (15.8)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

65.3

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

75.3

Relative Valuation

79.2

Growth-Adjusted Value

31.5

Historical Valuation

37.9

Macro Context

23.0

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$5.12

Base Case

$11.47

Bull Case

$20.83

Price at Analysis

$8.85

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$5.12	2.0%	28.0%	6.9%
🟢 Base	$11.47	5.0%	33.0%	6.4%
🟢 Bull	$20.83	8.0%	38.0%	5.9%

Key Assumptions: WACC derived using CAPM with 4.39% risk-free rate, beta of 0.41, and 6.0% ERP given E&P sector risk, yielding cost of equity ~6.85%; blended WACC reflects significant debt load (~$658M debt vs $302M equity) with estimated pre-tax cost of debt of 7.5%. Revenue base anchored at most recent $474M with historical volatility reflecting commodity price sensitivity; capex intensity averaged ~35% of revenue over the trailing period. Tax rate normalized to 30% given erratic historical effective rates, and operating margins projected between 28-38% across scenarios versus the 5-year range of -1.8% to 44.6%.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin8.8%

Operating Margin-1.8%

Net Margin-32.4%

ROIC-44.0%

ROE-38.4%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 0.60

Cash Conversion

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 46.2%

Altman Z-Score-0.55 (Distress)

Piotroski F-Score3/9 (Weak)

Growth

Revenue CAGR5.9% CAGR

Earnings CAGR49.5% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 2.49

Segment BreadthInsufficient segments

Quarterly TrendRev∆, Margin↓↓, WC↓, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityMixed

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEO Ownership6.1%

Compensation79% performance-based

Insider ActivityStrong Buying

Earnings Beat Rate74% (8/11)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 16, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.