HCA HCA

Name: HCA Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored March 18, 2026

Price at analysis: $487.73

Crucible Score

68.0

B-

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

70.3

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

65.1

B-

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — HCA

HCA Healthcare (HCA) delivers solid fundamentals with a robust 78 Moat Durability score and strong 88% earnings beat rate under CEO Hazen's eleven-year tenure. The hospital operator trades at a modest 6% discount to fair value, though concerning insider selling activity and weak diversification metrics (56) suggest vulnerability to healthcare sector headwinds. Monitor regulatory changes and capacity expansion plans.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

68.1

Growth Profile

61.9

Moat Durability⚠

78.5

Management Effectiveness

74.2

Diversification & Resilience⚠

56.0

Market Position

58.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (56.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

59.6

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

81.3

Relative Valuation

91.0

Growth-Adjusted Value

54.0

Historical Valuation

12.6

Macro Context

81.4

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$362.50

Base Case

$518.00

Bull Case

$715.00

Price at Analysis

$487.73

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$362.50	4.0%	14.0%	11.7%
🟢 Base	$518.00	6.0%	15.5%	11.1%
🟢 Bull	$715.00	8.0%	17.0%	10.5%

Key Assumptions: WACC derived from CAPM using 4.39% risk-free rate, 1.34 beta, and 5.0% ERP yielding 11.09% cost of equity; with HCA's deeply negative equity and ~$50B debt, debt-heavy capital structure pulls WACC modestly. Revenue growth anchored to 5-year CAGR of ~6.5% with bear reflecting volume/reimbursement headwinds and bull reflecting demographic tailwinds and same-store growth. Capex intensity held near historical 6.5% of revenue; FCF conversion from EBITDA assumed ~50% after capex, taxes, and interest given heavy leverage. Net debt of ~$49B subtracted from enterprise value to arrive at equity value.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin41.5%

Operating Margin15.8%

Net Margin9.0%

ROIC18.1%

ROE-120.5%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 0.83

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.13x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 6.5%

Altman Z-Score2.79 (Grey)

Piotroski F-Score7/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR6.5% CAGR

Earnings CAGR-0.6% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.54

Segment Breadth5/6 growing (83%)

Quarterly TrendRev↑, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOSamuel N. Hazen · 11 years

CEO Ownership1.5%

Compensation85% performance-based

Insider ActivitySelling

Capital AllocationROIC 18.1% vs WACC 3.5%

Earnings Beat Rate88% (19/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 18, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.