HLT HLT

Name: HLT Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored March 19, 2026

Price at analysis: $304.10

Crucible Score

55.8

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

71.1

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

37.0

D-

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — HLT

Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) presents a classic quality-value disconnect, with solid operational metrics (71.1 KQI) undermined by poor value proposition (37.0 KVI) at current prices near fair value. The hospitality giant's strong earnings beat rate of 86% and decent financial quality can't offset weak diversification and resilience scores. HLT's premium valuation leaves little room for error in an increasingly uncertain travel environment.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

77.9

Growth Profile

74.9

Moat Durability⚠

70.1

Management Effectiveness⚠

70.5

Diversification & Resilience⚠

48.0

Market Position

68.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (48.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

56.2

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

43.8

Relative Valuation

25.0

Growth-Adjusted Value

14.9

Historical Valuation

20.7

Macro Context

34.2

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$218.50

Base Case

$312.00

Bull Case

$435.00

Price at Analysis

$304.10

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$218.50	5.0%	20.0%	10.5%
🟢 Base	$312.00	7.0%	22.5%	9.8%
🟢 Bull	$435.00	9.0%	25.0%	9.2%

Key Assumptions: HLT operates an asset-light model with high FCF conversion; historical revenue CAGR from post-COVID recovery (~$5.8B) to ~$12B overstates normalized growth, so base case assumes ~7% revenue CAGR reflecting unit growth and RevPAR gains. WACC is elevated (9.2-10.5%) given significant negative equity and $15.7B debt load, with ERP of 5.5% applied to levered beta. Terminal margins reflect operating margin stabilization around 20-25% consistent with recent 22-24% range, with capex intensity remaining very low at ~1.2% of revenue given the franchise-heavy model.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin41.1%

Operating Margin22.4%

Net Margin12.1%

ROIC12.3%

ROE-21.8%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 10.81

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.36x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 0.8%

Altman Z-Score3.15 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score8/9 (Strong)

Growth

Revenue CAGR20.1% CAGR

Earnings CAGR37.3% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 2.90

Segment Breadth5/5 growing (100%)

Quarterly TrendMargin↑, WC↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOChristopher J. Nassetta · 19 years

CEO Ownership2.6%

Insider ActivitySelling

Capital AllocationROIC 12.3% vs WACC 3.1%

Earnings Beat Rate86% (18/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 19, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.