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Robinhood Markets, Inc. HOOD

Financial ServicesFinancial - Capital MarketsNASDAQ📅 Scored March 7, 2026
Price at analysis: $72.84
Crucible Score
50.6
C
Quality × Value Composite
KQI — Quality
63.7
B-
Fundamental Quality Index
KVI — Value
34.5
D-
Valuation Attractiveness Index
Crucible Verdict — HOOD

Robinhood Markets shows decent operational quality with strong growth prospects and financial metrics, but HOOD trades at full valuation with essentially no margin of safety at current levels. The stock's biggest red flag is its catastrophically low diversification score of 18, reflecting dangerous concentration risk in a volatile commission-free trading model. Any downturn in retail trading activity could severely impact results.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality
75.0
Growth Profile
76.4
Moat Durability
64.9
Management Effectiveness
59.9
Diversification & Resilience⚠
18.0
Market Position
50.0
Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (18.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety
45.0
FCF Yield & Cash Returns
34.8
Relative Valuation
5.0
Growth-Adjusted Value
35.0
Historical Valuation
56.1
Macro Context
27.0

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case
$42.15
Base Case
$72.50
Bull Case
$115.80
Price at Analysis
$72.84
ScenarioFair ValueRev CAGR (5yr)Terminal MarginWACC
🔴 Bear$42.1510.0%35.0%18.3%
🟢 Base$72.5015.0%42.0%17.3%
🟢 Bull$115.8020.0%48.0%16.3%
Key Assumptions: WACC calculated using CAPM with 4.39% risk-free rate, 2.48 beta, and 5.5% ERP yielding ~18% cost of equity; given minimal debt cost impact and high equity weight, WACC ranges 16.3-18.3% across scenarios. Revenue anchored off most recent $4.47B with strong recovery trajectory from $1.36B trough; operating margins normalizing toward 35-48% terminal range reflecting the platform's inherent operating leverage and near-zero capex intensity. Tax rate assumed at 12% reflecting historical effective rate normalization and available NOL carryforwards from prior loss years.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin81.8%
Operating Margin46.9%
Net Margin42.1%
ROIC7.4%
ROE8.8%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.26
Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.85x
Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 0.3%
Altman Z-Score1.96 (Grey)
Piotroski F-Score4/9 (Mixed)

Growth

Revenue CAGR25.3% CAGR
Earnings CAGR1540.1% CAGR
Growth ConsistencyCV: 1.09
Segment Breadth4/4 growing (100%)
Quarterly TrendRev∆, Margin↘, Cash↓, WC↓, Exp↓
Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Revenue Breakdown — FY2025

By Segment

Transaction-Based Revenues88.8%
Gold Subscription Revenues6.0%
Other Revenue3.0%
Proxy Revenues2.1%

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Analyst Price Targets

Avg Target (Last Quarter)$134.57
Analysts Covering (Quarter)23
Avg Target (Last Year)$135.02
Analysts (Year)41

Leadership & Governance

CEOVlad Tenev(Founder) · 13 years
CEO Ownership60.7%
Insider ActivitySelling
Capital AllocationROIC 7.4% vs WACC 18.1%
Earnings Beat Rate86% (18/22)

◆ Company Profile

Robinhood Markets, Inc. operates financial services platform in the United States.

CEO
Vladimir Tenev
Employees
2300
Headquarters
Menlo Park, CA, US
IPO Date
July 29, 2021
Exchange
NASDAQ

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Financial Services companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+
MethodologyAll ScoresCrucible BriefsPerformance@KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.

© 2026 Kaladin Capital Intelligence — Conviction Through Scrutiny