Kodiak Gas Services KGS

Name: KGS Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored March 17, 2026

Price at analysis: $58.72

Crucible Score

52.2

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

56.5

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

47.0

D+

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — KGS

Kodiak Gas Services (KGS) shows decent operational fundamentals with a 64 financial quality score and strong insider buying activity, but poor diversification (18 score) and weak earnings consistency (46% beat rate) create significant risk. The stock trades at a 11% discount to fair value, though KGS's narrow business focus makes it vulnerable to sector-specific downturns that could quickly erode this modest upside.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

63.8

Growth Profile

66.7

Moat Durability⚠

67.7

Management Effectiveness

42.2

Diversification & Resilience⚠

18.0

Market Position

48.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (18.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

59.8

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

55.1

Relative Valuation

40.2

Growth-Adjusted Value

33.2

Historical Valuation

32.6

Macro Context

19.2

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$42.18

Base Case

$65.41

Bull Case

$96.53

Price at Analysis

$58.72

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$42.18	6.0%	28.0%	10.0%
🟢 Base	$65.41	10.0%	31.0%	9.3%
🟢 Bull	$96.53	14.0%	34.0%	8.7%

Key Assumptions: Revenue grew from ~$606M to ~$1,308M over 5 years (CAGR ~16.6%) driven by energy infrastructure buildout; base case assumes moderation to 10% CAGR as the sector matures. Operating margins averaged ~29-31% historically; capex intensity remains elevated at ~24% of revenue reflecting ongoing midstream infrastructure investment. Tax rate normalized at 28% excluding the anomalous negative rate year, and net debt of ~$41M (most recent year) is used to bridge from EV to equity value.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin47.3%

Operating Margin27.1%

Net Margin6.2%

ROIC6.8%

ROE12.8%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 0.84

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 3.55x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 24.1%

Altman Z-Score1.44 (Distress)

Piotroski F-Score8/9 (Strong)

Growth

Revenue CAGR21.2% CAGR

Earnings CAGR-18.3% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.43

Segment Breadth2/2 growing (100%)

Quarterly TrendRev∆, Margin↓, WC↓

Earnings CredibilityMixed

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEO Ownership< 1%

Compensation85% performance-based

Insider ActivityStrong Buying

Capital AllocationROIC 6.8% vs WACC 357.8%

Earnings Beat Rate46% (10/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 17, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.