Leidos Holdings, Inc. LDOS

Name: LDOS Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesNYSE📅 Scored March 7, 2026

Price at analysis: $159.15

Crucible Score

73.0

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

65.0

B-

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

82.7

A-

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — LDOS

Leidos Holdings, Inc. trades at a 15% discount to fair value despite posting a remarkable 97% earnings beat rate over the past two years. LDOS demonstrates solid fundamentals across most dimensions, though weak diversification (52 score) and modest market position (58) limit upside potential. The consistent earnings execution suggests the valuation gap should narrow as government contract momentum continues.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

69.1

Growth Profile

69.9

Moat Durability

61.8

Management Effectiveness

67.0

Diversification & Resilience

51.8

Market Position

58.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (51.8)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

70.2

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

86.1

Relative Valuation

94.8

Growth-Adjusted Value

83.9

Historical Valuation

86.9

Macro Context

95.0

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$131.52

Base Case

$183.74

Bull Case

$248.61

Price at Analysis

$159.15

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$131.52	4.0%	9.0%	8.1%
🟢 Base	$183.74	5.5%	11.0%	7.5%
🟢 Bull	$248.61	7.0%	13.0%	7.0%

Key Assumptions: WACC derived using CAPM with 4.39% risk-free rate, 0.62 beta, and 5.5% ERP yielding ~7.8% base cost of equity, blended with after-tax cost of debt (~4.2%) at ~55% equity weighting. Revenue growth anchored to historical 5-year CAGR of ~5.7% with bear reflecting government spending headwinds and bull reflecting accelerating defense/IT modernization demand. Operating margins trend from recent ~12% toward 9-13% terminal range across scenarios, reflecting the margin volatility observed historically (4%-12.3%), with capex intensity remaining low at ~0.8% of revenue consistent with asset-light IT services model.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin17.7%

Operating Margin12.3%

Net Margin8.5%

ROIC14.8%

ROE16.8%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.70

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.12x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 0.7%

Altman Z-Score4.03 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score7/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR8.6% CAGR

Earnings CAGR23.2% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 1.05

Segment Breadth5/5 growing (100%)

Quarterly TrendRev∆

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Revenue Breakdown — FY2025

By Segment

National Security Solutions57.7%

Civil Segment29.5%

Defense Solution Segment12.7%

By Geography

Non-US100.0%

Total Revenue

$1.4B

Fiscal Year 2025

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Analyst Price Targets

Avg Target (Last Quarter)$209.00

Analysts Covering (Quarter)6

Avg Target (Last Year)$206.86

Analysts (Year)14

Leadership & Governance

CEOJames C. Reagan · 7 years

CEO Ownership< 1%

Compensation86% performance-based

Insider ActivitySelling

Capital AllocationROIC 14.8% vs WACC 2.7%

Earnings Beat Rate97% (21/22)

◆ Company Profile

Leidos Holdings, Inc. , together with its subsidiaries, provides services and solutions in the defense, intelligence, civil, and health markets in the United States and internationally.

CEO

Thomas A. Bell

Employees

47000

Headquarters

Reston, VA, US

IPO Date

October 17, 2006

Exchange

NYSE

Website

leidos.com

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ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.