Eli Lilly and Company LLY

Name: LLY Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

HealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralNYSE📅 Scored March 7, 2026

Price at analysis: $916.42

Crucible Score

67.6

B-

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

82.0

A-

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

45.4

D+

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — LLY

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) showcases exceptional operational quality with an 82.0 KQI score and 88% earnings beat rate, but trades at a 40-point premium to its value metrics. The pharma giant's strong moat and management execution under CEO Ricks justify some premium, though current pricing leaves little margin for error. Watch for pipeline updates to support the valuation stretch.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

82.9

Growth Profile

73.8

Moat Durability

81.0

Management Effectiveness⚠

79.8

Diversification & Resilience⚠

74.0

Market Position

77.0

Weakest dimension: Growth Profile (73.8)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

48.2

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

16.2

Relative Valuation

14.4

Growth-Adjusted Value

95.0

Historical Valuation

94.5

Macro Context

5.0

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$582.15

Base Case

$968.73

Bull Case

$1524.88

Price at Analysis

$916.42

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$582.15	10.0%	38.0%	7.0%
🟢 Base	$968.73	14.0%	43.0%	6.7%
🟢 Bull	$1524.88	18.0%	47.0%	6.4%

Key Assumptions: WACC derived from CAPM using 4.39% risk-free rate, 0.43 beta, and 5.5% ERP yielding ~6.75% cost of equity, blended with after-tax cost of debt (~4.2%) at ~35% debt weighting. Revenue growth anchored on explosive recent trajectory driven by Mounjaro/Zepbound GLP-1 franchise, with bear case reflecting competitive pressure and pricing headwinds, base case reflecting continued strong but decelerating adoption, and bull case reflecting sustained blockbuster demand plus pipeline optionality. Capex intensity assumed to normalize from recent peak (~12-15%) toward 10-11% as manufacturing buildout matures.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin83.8%

Operating Margin45.6%

Net Margin31.7%

ROIC29.4%

ROE80.1%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.58

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.43x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 12.0%

Altman Z-Score8.31 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR23.2% CAGR

Earnings CAGR38.7% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 1.06

Segment Breadth4/8 growing (50%)

Quarterly TrendRev∆, Margin↑, WC↓, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Revenue Breakdown — FY2025

By Segment

Product93.5%

Collaboration and Other Revenue6.5%

By Geography

UNITED STATES66.7%

Europe17.7%

Non-US9.3%

JAPAN3.3%

CHINA3.0%

Total Revenue

$65.2B

Fiscal Year 2025

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Analyst Price Targets

Avg Target (Last Quarter)$1244.31

Analysts Covering (Quarter)16

Avg Target (Last Year)$1122.97

Analysts (Year)33

Leadership & Governance

CEODavid A. Ricks · 9 years

CEO Ownership< 1%

Insider ActivitySelling

Capital AllocationROIC 29.4% vs WACC 1.5%

Earnings Beat Rate88% (18/21)

◆ Company Profile

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, and markets human pharmaceuticals worldwide. It offers Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, and Humulin U-500 for diabetes; and Jardiance, Trajenta, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes.

CEO

David A. Ricks

Employees

47000

Headquarters

Indianapolis, IN, US

IPO Date

June 1, 1972

Exchange

NYSE

Website

lilly.com

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Healthcare companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.