MAR MAR

Name: MAR Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored March 26, 2026

Price at analysis: $326.79

Crucible Score

56.6

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

68.1

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

43.7

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — MAR

Marriott International (MAR) delivers solid operational metrics with strong market position (75) and financial quality (73), but trades at a significant discount to intrinsic value despite decent execution under CEO Capuano. The 43.7 value score reflects market skepticism about hospitality sector fundamentals, creating a potential opportunity for patient investors. Watch for demand normalization trends and margin expansion.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

72.6

Growth Profile⚠

69.5

Moat Durability⚠

65.7

Management Effectiveness⚠

68.7

Diversification & Resilience⚠

47.0

Market Position

75.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (47.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

55.1

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

46.3

Relative Valuation

58.8

Growth-Adjusted Value

13.7

Historical Valuation

23.2

Macro Context

45.3

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$228.45

Base Case

$338.12

Bull Case

$482.67

Price at Analysis

$326.79

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$228.45	4.0%	14.0%	10.5%
🟢 Base	$338.12	6.0%	16.0%	9.8%
🟢 Bull	$482.67	8.0%	18.0%	9.2%

Key Assumptions: MAR operates an asset-light franchise/management model with negative equity, so operating margins reflect fee-based revenue around 15-17% historically. Revenue CAGR of ~17% from the COVID trough normalizes to mid-single-digit growth in the base case reflecting global unit expansion and RevPAR growth. WACC is elevated (9.2-10.5%) given significant leverage with $17B debt against negative equity, using an ERP of 5.5% and adjusting cost of debt for the heavy capital structure. Terminal margins assume modest improvement from current levels in base/bull as the franchise mix continues to shift favorably.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin21.3%

Operating Margin15.8%

Net Margin9.9%

ROIC15.5%

ROE15.3%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 0.43

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.11x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 2.3%

Altman Z-Score3.84 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGRNo data

Earnings CAGRNo data

Growth ConsistencyNo data

Segment Breadth5/5 growing (100%)

Quarterly TrendMargin↓↓

Earnings CredibilityTends to Beat

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOAnthony Capuano · 5 years

Insider ActivityNeutral

Capital AllocationROIC 15.5% vs WACC 3.7%

Earnings Beat Rate66% (15/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 26, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.