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MercadoLibre, Inc. MELI

Consumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailNASDAQ📅 Scored March 14, 2026
Price at analysis: $1639.47
Crucible Score
73.8
B+
Quality × Value Composite
KQI — Quality
74.9
B+
Fundamental Quality Index
KVI — Value
68.2
B-
Valuation Attractiveness Index
Crucible Verdict — MELI

MercadoLibre earns a solid B+ rating driven by its dominant market position and strong growth profile in Latin American e-commerce, though diversification remains limited at 57. MELI trades at a 21% discount to fair value despite founder Marcos Galperin's proven 25-year track record and 96% performance-based compensation structure. The quality-value spread suggests the market is underappreciating the company's moat durability in emerging markets.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality
77.9
Growth Profile
78.2
Moat Durability
78.9
Management Effectiveness
65.1
Diversification & Resilience
57.2
Market Position
80.0
Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (57.2)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety
68.8
FCF Yield & Cash Returns
72.0
Relative Valuation
52.0
Growth-Adjusted Value
80.3
Historical Valuation
87.2
Macro Context
5.0

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case
$1285.00
Base Case
$1980.00
Bull Case
$2890.00
Price at Analysis
$1639.47
ScenarioFair ValueRev CAGR (5yr)Terminal MarginWACC
🔴 Bear$1285.0014.0%11.0%12.8%
🟢 Base$1980.0018.0%13.0%12.0%
🟢 Bull$2890.0022.0%15.0%11.3%
Key Assumptions: MELI has demonstrated ~32% revenue CAGR over the trailing 5 years with operating margins expanding from 6.2% to 11.1%, while FCF conversion has been exceptionally strong due to negative working capital dynamics from its fintech business. WACC is calculated using CAPM with risk-free rate of 4.39%, beta of 1.53, and an equity risk premium of 5.5% (bear), 5.0% (base), and 4.4% (bull), reflecting LatAm emerging market risk. Terminal operating margins are kept conservative at 11-15% given competitive pressures in e-commerce and fintech, while revenue growth decelerates from current ~30%+ levels toward 14-22% over the first five years and further to 8-14% in years 6-10, reflecting market maturation across Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin44.5%
Operating Margin11.1%
Net Margin6.9%
ROIC13.0%
ROE15.4%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.17
Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 5.06x
Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 4.6%
Altman Z-Score2.61 (Grey)
Piotroski F-Score5/9 (Mixed)

Growth

Revenue CAGR30.2% CAGR
Earnings CAGR121.5% CAGR
Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.53
Segment Breadth2/2 growing (100%)
Quarterly TrendRev↑, Margin↓, Exp↓
Earnings CredibilityMixed

◆ Revenue Breakdown — FY2025

By Segment

Service87.5%
Product12.5%

By Geography

Brazil Segment52.6%
Mexico Segment22.4%
Argentina Segment20.6%
Other Countries Segment4.3%
Total Revenue
$28.9B
Fiscal Year 2025

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Analyst Price Targets

Avg Target (Last Quarter)$2600.00
Analysts Covering (Quarter)1
Avg Target (Last Year)$2785.00
Analysts (Year)10

Leadership & Governance

CEOMarcos Galperin(Founder) · 25 years
CEO Ownership< 1%
Compensation96% performance-based
Insider ActivityBuying
Capital AllocationROIC 13.0% vs WACC 1.0%
Earnings Beat Rate68% (17/22)

◆ Company Profile

MercadoLibre, Inc. operates online commerce platforms in Latin America.

CEO
Ariel Szarfsztejn
Employees
84207
Headquarters
Montevideo, UY
IPO Date
August 10, 2007
Exchange
NASDAQ

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Consumer Cyclical companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+
MethodologyAll ScoresCrucible BriefsPerformance@KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 14, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.

© 2026 Kaladin Capital Intelligence — Conviction Through Scrutiny