MS MS

Name: MS Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored April 20, 2026

Price at analysis: $188.84

Crucible Score

49.7

C-

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

51.1

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

48.1

D+

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — MS

Microsoft's (MS) modest quality metrics mask the underlying strength of its diversified business model and strong market positioning, though financial quality concerns weigh on the overall assessment. The stock trades at a 9% discount to fair value despite consistent earnings beats under Nadella's leadership. The company's resilience and market dominance should drive gradual multiple expansion as financial metrics improve.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

40.9

Growth Profile

61.3

Moat Durability⚠

47.8

Management Effectiveness

46.0

Diversification & Resilience⚠

74.0

Market Position

68.0

Weakest dimension: Financial Quality (40.9)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

59.9

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

20.0

Relative Valuation

57.3

Growth-Adjusted Value

62.5

Historical Valuation

24.8

Macro Context

77.4

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$139.52

Base Case

$205.37

Bull Case

$298.14

Price at Analysis

$188.84

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$139.52	4.0%	17.0%	11.1%
🟢 Base	$205.37	6.5%	20.0%	10.1%
🟢 Bull	$298.14	9.0%	24.0%	9.3%

Key Assumptions: Morgan Stanley is a capital markets firm with highly volatile operating cash flows driven by trading inventory and client balances, making traditional FCF projections challenging. Revenue CAGR anchored to 5-year historical CAGR of approximately 15% but moderated significantly given cyclical normalization; operating margins ranged from 13% to 34% historically, with base case assuming stabilization near the 5-year average of ~21%. WACC calculated using CAPM with 5.5% ERP given financial sector risk, yielding base WACC of ~10.1%, with bear/bull cases adjusted ±75bps to reflect uncertainty in cost of equity for a leveraged financial institution.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin58.0%

Operating Margin19.5%

Net Margin15.1%

ROIC1.9%

ROE11.1%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.17

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: -0.98x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 2.5%

Altman Z-Score0.47 (Distress)

Piotroski F-Score4/9 (Mixed)

Growth

Revenue CAGR5.2% CAGR

Earnings CAGR2.9% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 1.90

Segment Breadth3/3 growing (100%)

Quarterly TrendRev∆, Margin↑, Cash↓, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOSatya Nadella · 12 years

CEO Ownership< 1%

Compensation97% performance-based

Insider ActivitySelling

Capital AllocationROIC 1.9% vs WACC 8.1%

Earnings Beat Rate75% (14/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted April 20, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.