Microsoft Corporation MSFT

Name: MSFT Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureNASDAQ📅 Scored April 25, 2026

Price at analysis: $371.04

Crucible Score

66.6

B-

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

86.0

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

42.4

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — MSFT

Microsoft Corporation earns a solid B- grade driven by exceptional diversification (98) and strong operational metrics across all quality dimensions, though the stock trades at a 35% premium to intrinsic value despite attractive fundamentals. MSFT's perfect earnings beat streak under Nadella's performance-driven leadership validates its competitive positioning, but current valuations leave little margin of safety for new investors seeking entry points.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

81.1

Growth Profile

80.0

Moat Durability

83.8

Management Effectiveness

78.7

Diversification & Resilience

98.0

Market Position

85.0

Weakest dimension: Management Effectiveness (78.7)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

53.0

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

31.8

Relative Valuation

44.5

Growth-Adjusted Value

61.2

Historical Valuation

10.6

Macro Context

19.0

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$298.52

Base Case

$432.18

Bull Case

$612.75

Price at Analysis

$371.04

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$298.52	8.0%	40.0%	10.0%
🟢 Base	$432.18	12.0%	44.0%	9.3%
🟢 Bull	$612.75	15.0%	47.0%	8.7%

Key Assumptions: WACC derived from CAPM using 4.39% risk-free rate, 1.11 beta, and 5.0-5.5% ERP depending on scenario, yielding 8.7-10.0%. Capex intensity assumed at ~20% of revenue reflecting the massive AI/cloud infrastructure buildout visible in the most recent year (23% of revenue), moderating over time. Revenue growth anchored to the 5-year CAGR of ~13.8%, with bear case reflecting macro slowdown and AI monetization delays, base case reflecting continued cloud and AI momentum, and bull case reflecting accelerated enterprise AI adoption and margin leverage from software scale economics.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin68.6%

Operating Margin46.7%

Net Margin39.0%

ROIC21.9%

ROE30.5%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetD/E: 0.32*, CR: 1.39* (* = TTM)

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.65x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 22.9%

Altman Z-Score8.63 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score7/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR13.8% CAGR

Earnings CAGR13.5% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.30

Segment Breadth7/8 growing (88%)

Quarterly TrendRev↑, Margin↑, WC↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Revenue Breakdown — FY2025

By Segment

Server Products And Cloud Services34.9%

Microsoft Three Six Five Commercial Products And Cloud Services31.2%

Gaming8.3%

Linked In Corporation6.3%

Windows6.1%

Search Advertising4.9%

Dynamics Products And Cloud Services2.8%

Enterprise Services2.8%

Microsoft Three Six Five Consumer Products and Cloud Services2.6%

Other Products And Services0.0%

By Geography

UNITED STATES51.3%

Non Us48.7%

Total Revenue

$281.7B

Fiscal Year 2025

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Analyst Price Targets

Avg Target (Last Quarter)$554.27

Analysts Covering (Quarter)22

Avg Target (Last Year)$598.62

Analysts (Year)60

Leadership & Governance

CEOSatya Nadella · 12 years

CEO Ownership< 1%

Compensation97% performance-based

Insider ActivityBuying

Capital AllocationROIC 21.9% vs WACC 1.7%

Earnings Beat Rate100% (22/22)

◆ Company Profile

Microsoft Corporation develops, licenses, and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing.

CEO

Satya Nadella

Employees

228000

Headquarters

Redmond, WA, US

IPO Date

March 13, 1986

Exchange

NASDAQ

Website

microsoft.com

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Technology companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted April 25, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.