MSI MSI

Name: MSI Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored April 7, 2026

Price at analysis: $442.37

Crucible Score

64.5

B-

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

75.3

B+

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

51.3

C-

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — MSI

MSI delivers solid operational execution with an impressive 100% earnings beat rate over 22 quarters and strong fundamentals across most metrics, but poor diversification (46 score) creates meaningful risk concentration that weighs on the overall profile. The stock trades at a modest 8% discount to fair value, offering limited upside despite quality management under Charles Chiang.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

77.8

Growth Profile

72.8

Moat Durability

79.8

Management Effectiveness

78.1

Diversification & Resilience⚠

46.0

Market Position

72.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (46.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

62.2

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

35.8

Relative Valuation

58.5

Growth-Adjusted Value

49.4

Historical Valuation

40.7

Macro Context

53.2

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$338.50

Base Case

$478.20

Bull Case

$648.75

Price at Analysis

$442.37

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$338.50	5.0%	23.0%	9.8%
🟢 Base	$478.20	7.5%	25.5%	9.2%
🟢 Bull	$648.75	10.0%	28.0%	8.7%

Key Assumptions: Revenue grew at ~9.3% CAGR over the trailing 5 years with operating margins expanding from 20.4% to 25.1%; base case assumes moderation to 7.5% revenue CAGR as the public safety and enterprise communications markets mature, with margins stabilizing near 25.5%. Bear case reflects potential government spending slowdowns and competitive pressure compressing margins to 23%, while bull case assumes continued LMR replacement cycle tailwinds and video/command center cross-selling driving 10% growth with margins reaching 28%. WACC calculated using CAPM with 4.35% risk-free rate, 0.99 beta, and 5.5% ERP, adjusted modestly across scenarios for leverage differences given elevated debt levels (~$9.8B).

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin50.2%

Operating Margin25.1%

Net Margin18.4%

ROIC17.0%

ROE-193.8%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.04

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.19x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 2.3%

Altman Z-Score3.93 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score5/9 (Mixed)

Growth

Revenue CAGR9.3% CAGR

Earnings CAGR14.7% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.71

Segment Breadth2/2 growing (100%)

Quarterly TrendRev↑, Margin∆, WC↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOCharles Chiang · 7 years

CEO Ownership1.3%

Compensation87% performance-based

Insider ActivityNeutral

Capital AllocationROIC 17.0% vs WACC 3.0%

Earnings Beat Rate100% (22/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted April 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.