NBIX logo

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. NBIX

HealthcareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericNASDAQ📅 Scored March 7, 2026
Price at analysis: $132.25
Crucible Score
67.7
B-
Quality × Value Composite
KQI — Quality
66.5
B-
Fundamental Quality Index
KVI — Value
69.1
B-
Valuation Attractiveness Index
Crucible Verdict — NBIX

Neurocrine Biosciences scores solidly (B-) driven by strong financial quality and durable moat fundamentals, though growth has stalled and diversification remains minimal. NBIX trades at a 28% discount to fair value despite its specialized CNS franchise and solid balance sheet. The key catalyst will be whether management can reignite growth beyond its current Parkinson's and psychiatric drug portfolio.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality
79.6
Growth Profile
42.9
Moat Durability
82.3
Management Effectiveness
60.7
Diversification & Resilience⚠
28.0
Market Position
66.0
Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (28.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety
73.7
FCF Yield & Cash Returns
55.8
Relative Valuation
54.3
Growth-Adjusted Value
82.5
Historical Valuation
94.5
Macro Context
51.0

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case
$109.42
Base Case
$168.73
Bull Case
$248.56
Price at Analysis
$132.25
ScenarioFair ValueRev CAGR (5yr)Terminal MarginWACC
🔴 Bear$109.4210.0%22.0%6.1%
🟢 Base$168.7314.0%25.0%5.9%
🟢 Bull$248.5618.0%28.0%5.7%
Key Assumptions: WACC derived from CAPM using 4.39% risk-free rate, 0.36 beta, and 5.5% ERP yielding ~6.37% cost of equity, blended with modest cost of debt given low leverage; scenario-adjusted WACC ranges 5.69%-6.11%. Revenue growth anchored on 5-year CAGR of ~20% decelerating toward maturity; operating margins reflect historical improvement from 9% to 21.6% with further modest expansion possible given specialty pharma operating leverage. Tax rate normalized at 28% reflecting recent trend, and capex intensity remains very low at ~1.3% of revenue consistent with asset-light pharma model.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin98.2%
Operating Margin21.6%
Net Margin16.7%
ROIC11.1%
ROE1.8%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 3.39
Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.56x
Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 1.2%
Altman Z-Score7.38 (Safe)
Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR-29.1% CAGR (suspect)
Earnings CAGR-14.5% CAGR
Growth ConsistencyCV: 2.16
Segment Breadth2/2 growing (100%)
Quarterly TrendRev↑, Margin↑, Exp↓
Earnings CredibilityConsistent Misser

◆ Revenue Breakdown — FY2025

By Segment

Product99.1%
Collaboration Revenue0.9%

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Analyst Price Targets

Avg Target (Last Quarter)$175.29
Analysts Covering (Quarter)14
Avg Target (Last Year)$172.28
Analysts (Year)29

Leadership & Governance

CEOKevin Gorman · 4 years
CEO Ownership4.8%
Compensation86% performance-based
Insider ActivitySelling
Capital AllocationROIC 11.1% vs WACC 6.5%
Earnings Beat Rate45% (11/22)

◆ Company Profile

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. discovers, develops, and markets pharmaceuticals for neurological, endocrine, and psychiatric disorders.

CEO
Kyle W. Gano
Employees
1800
Headquarters
San Diego, CA, US
IPO Date
May 23, 1996
Exchange
NASDAQ

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Healthcare companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+
MethodologyAll ScoresCrucible BriefsPerformance@KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.

© 2026 Kaladin Capital Intelligence — Conviction Through Scrutiny