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Netflix, Inc. NFLX

Communication ServicesEntertainmentNASDAQ📅 Scored April 17, 2026
Price at analysis: $92.28
Crucible Score
70.2
B
Quality × Value Composite
KQI — Quality
75.2
B+
Fundamental Quality Index
KVI — Value
56.4
C
Valuation Attractiveness Index
Crucible Verdict — NFLX

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) presents a classic quality-value disconnect, with solid operational metrics (87 financial quality, 85% earnings beat rate) undermined by stretched valuations and weak diversification (48 score). NFLX trades near fair value at $92 versus $102 base case, but the single-business model remains vulnerable to streaming saturation. Diversification progress will determine multiple expansion potential.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality
86.6
Growth Profile⚠
78.2
Moat Durability
68.0
Management Effectiveness
77.9
Diversification & Resilience⚠
48.0
Market Position
75.0
Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (48.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety
61.0
FCF Yield & Cash Returns
35.7
Relative Valuation
61.2
Growth-Adjusted Value
71.3
Historical Valuation
70.2
Macro Context
5.0

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case
$68.42
Base Case
$102.15
Bull Case
$148.73
Price at Analysis
$92.28
ScenarioFair ValueRev CAGR (5yr)Terminal MarginWACC
🔴 Bear$68.428.0%28.0%13.4%
🟢 Base$102.1511.0%32.0%12.8%
🟢 Bull$148.7314.0%36.0%12.3%
Key Assumptions: WACC derived using CAPM with 4.39% risk-free rate, 1.71 beta, and 5.5% ERP (base), yielding ~12.8% base WACC; bear uses 5.75% ERP and bull uses 5.25% ERP. Revenue growth anchored to trailing 5-year CAGR of ~11%, with operating margins trending from current ~29.5% toward terminal levels reflecting content cost leverage. FCF conversion improves as content amortization normalizes relative to cash content spend, with capex remaining light at ~1.6% of revenue consistent with historical levels.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin49.0%
Operating Margin29.7%
Net Margin28.5%
ROIC24.2%
ROE25.2%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.41
Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.89x
Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 1.5%
Altman Z-Score11.90 (Safe)
Piotroski F-Score8/9 (Strong)

Growth

Revenue CAGR11.1% CAGR
Earnings CAGR21.0% CAGR
Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.48
Segment BreadthInsufficient segments
Quarterly TrendMargin∆, WC↓, Exp↓
Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Revenue Breakdown — FY2024

By Segment

Streaming100.0%

By Geography

United States And Canada44.2%
EMEA32.1%
Latin America11.9%
Asia Pacific11.8%
Total Revenue
$45.2B
Fiscal Year 2025

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Analyst Price Targets

Avg Target (Last Quarter)$113.65
Analysts Covering (Quarter)23
Avg Target (Last Year)$122.24
Analysts (Year)54

Leadership & Governance

CEOTed Sarandos(Founder) · 6 years
CEO Ownership1.4%
Compensation91% performance-based
Insider ActivitySelling
Capital AllocationROIC 24.2% vs WACC 4.2%
Earnings Beat Rate85% (19/22)

◆ Company Profile

Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services.

CEO
Theodore A. Sarandos
Employees
14000
Headquarters
Los Gatos, CA, US
IPO Date
May 23, 2002
Exchange
NASDAQ

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Communication Services companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+
MethodologyAll ScoresCrucible BriefsPerformance@KaladinCI

Analysis conducted April 17, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.

© 2026 Kaladin Capital Intelligence — Conviction Through Scrutiny