ONON logo

On Holding AG ONON

Consumer CyclicalApparel - RetailNYSE📅 Scored March 7, 2026
Price at analysis: $33.89
Crucible Score
64.4
B-
Quality × Value Composite
KQI — Quality
70.2
B
Fundamental Quality Index
KVI — Value
57.3
C
Valuation Attractiveness Index
Crucible Verdict — ONON

On Holding AG (ONON) presents a quality-value disconnect, with strong fundamentals (82 Financial Quality, 74 Growth Profile) undermined by poor diversification and weak market positioning that drag its overall score to 64.4. ONON trades at a 14% discount to fair value despite solid execution under CEO Hoffmann. The company's resilience remains questionable given its concentrated risk profile.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality
81.6
Growth Profile
73.7
Moat Durability
68.4
Management Effectiveness⚠
70.7
Diversification & Resilience
46.5
Market Position
55.0
Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (46.5)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety
57.8
FCF Yield & Cash Returns
31.9
Relative Valuation
52.4
Growth-Adjusted Value
78.2
Historical Valuation
92.6
Macro Context
38.5

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case
$22.45
Base Case
$38.72
Bull Case
$61.50
Price at Analysis
$33.89
ScenarioFair ValueRev CAGR (5yr)Terminal MarginWACC
🔴 Bear$22.4512.0%11.0%16.2%
🟢 Base$38.7218.0%14.0%15.5%
🟢 Bull$61.5022.0%17.0%14.8%
Key Assumptions: WACC derived from CAPM using 4.39% risk-free rate, 2.15 beta, and 5.5% ERP yielding ~16.2% base cost of equity; debt is minimal so WACC approximates cost of equity with slight adjustments across scenarios. Revenue growth anchored on 5-year CAGR of ~32% but decelerating materially given scale, with operating margins expanding from ~12.5% toward 11-17% terminal range reflecting On's premium brand positioning but high beta risk. Tax rate normalized to 15% reflecting Swiss domicile with international operations, and capex intensity kept low at ~2.5% consistent with asset-light model.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin62.8%
Operating Margin12.5%
Net Margin6.8%
ROIC14.8%
ROE1.3%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 2.71
Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.35x
Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 2.4%
Altman Z-Score7.42 (Safe)
Piotroski F-Score8/9 (Strong)

Growth

Revenue CAGR41.2% CAGR
Earnings CAGR223.1% CAGR
Growth ConsistencyCV: 1.99
Segment Breadth3/3 growing (100%)
Quarterly TrendRev→+22%, Margin↑, Exp↓
Earnings CredibilityMixed

◆ Revenue Breakdown — FY2025

By Segment

Shoes93.0%
Apparel5.6%
Accessories1.3%

By Geography

Americas37.8%
UNITED STATES33.7%
Europe, Middle East And Africa16.6%
Asia Pacific11.1%
SWITZERLAND0.9%
Total Revenue
$4.6B
Fiscal Year 2025

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Analyst Price Targets

Avg Target (Last Quarter)$59.10
Analysts Covering (Quarter)10
Avg Target (Last Year)$59.33
Analysts (Year)24

Leadership & Governance

CEOMartin Hoffmann · 2 years
CEO Ownership16.8%
Insider ActivityNeutral
Capital AllocationROIC 14.8% vs WACC 3.8%
Earnings Beat Rate68% (17/22)

◆ Company Profile

On Holding AG develops and distributes sports products worldwide. It offers athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories.

CEO
Martin Hoffmann
Employees
3254
Headquarters
Zurich, CH
IPO Date
September 15, 2021
Exchange
NYSE

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Consumer Cyclical companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+
MethodologyAll ScoresCrucible BriefsPerformance@KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.

© 2026 Kaladin Capital Intelligence — Conviction Through Scrutiny