PAYX PAYX

Name: PAYX Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored March 31, 2026

Price at analysis: $91.70

Crucible Score

69.2

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

72.8

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

64.7

C+

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — PAYX

Paychex (PAYX) delivers solid financial quality with an 87 score but struggles with tepid growth prospects, earning just a 54 on growth profile despite an impressive 83% earnings beat rate. The stock trades at a modest discount to its $100 fair value, though the quality-growth mismatch limits upside potential. PAYX remains a defensive play dependent on economic acceleration to unlock meaningful growth.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

87.4

Growth Profile

54.2

Moat Durability⚠

74.8

Management Effectiveness⚠

69.9

Diversification & Resilience⚠

68.0

Market Position

68.0

Weakest dimension: Growth Profile (54.2)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

64.1

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

68.7

Relative Valuation

82.6

Growth-Adjusted Value

24.2

Historical Valuation

86.5

Macro Context

77.7

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$72.45

Base Case

$100.18

Bull Case

$138.52

Price at Analysis

$91.70

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$72.45	5.0%	37.0%	9.2%
🟢 Base	$100.18	7.0%	40.0%	8.8%
🟢 Bull	$138.52	9.0%	43.0%	8.3%

Key Assumptions: PAYX has demonstrated consistent revenue growth (~8% 5-yr CAGR) with stable operating margins near 40%. Bear case assumes macro slowdown compressing SMB payroll demand and margin pressure from competition; base case continues mid-single-digit organic growth with stable margins reflecting pricing power and recurring revenue model; bull case assumes accelerated HCM cross-selling, margin expansion from operating leverage, and favorable employment trends. WACC derived from CAPM with 5.15% ERP reflecting the defensive, recurring-revenue nature of the business. Net debt adjustment reflects the most recent balance sheet with $5,022M debt and $1,629M cash.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin73.9%

Operating Margin36.9%

Net Margin25.8%

ROIC20.5%

ROE40.8%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetD/E: 1.25*, CR: 1.26* (* = TTM)

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.31x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 3.4%

Altman Z-Score2.58 (Grey)

Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR-39.6% CAGR (suspect)

Earnings CAGR-37.7% CAGR (suspect)

Growth ConsistencyCV: 8.44

Segment Breadth2/2 growing (100%)

Quarterly TrendRev↑, Margin↑, WC↓, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOStephanie Schaefer · 3 years

CEO Ownership< 1%

Insider ActivityBuying

Capital AllocationROIC 20.5% vs WACC 1.7%

Earnings Beat Rate83% (17/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 31, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.