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Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR

TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureNASDAQ📅 Scored March 7, 2026
Price at analysis: $150.91
Crucible Score
51.7
C
Quality × Value Composite
KQI — Quality
76.8
B+
Fundamental Quality Index
KVI — Value
21.1
F
Valuation Attractiveness Index
Crucible Verdict — PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) presents a stark quality-value disconnect, with exceptional growth metrics (89) and financial quality (84) undermined by extreme overvaluation at 59% above fair value. The data analytics specialist's 91% earnings beat rate under founder-CEO Alex Karp demonstrates execution strength, but the stock trades at premium valuations that leave little room for error.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality
84.1
Growth Profile
88.9
Moat Durability
80.2
Management Effectiveness⚠
58.9
Diversification & Resilience
60.0
Market Position
75.0
Weakest dimension: Management Effectiveness (58.9)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety
8.4
FCF Yield & Cash Returns
19.2
Relative Valuation
9.2
Growth-Adjusted Value
35.0
Historical Valuation
64.8
Macro Context
16.2

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case
$52.18
Base Case
$95.40
Bull Case
$172.53
Price at Analysis
$150.91
ScenarioFair ValueRev CAGR (5yr)Terminal MarginWACC
🔴 Bear$52.1818.0%30.0%14.3%
🟢 Base$95.4024.0%35.0%13.3%
🟢 Bull$172.5330.0%40.0%12.3%
Key Assumptions: WACC derived from CAPM using 4.39% risk-free rate, beta of 1.74, and 5.5% ERP yielding ~13.96% base cost of equity; near-zero debt weight keeps WACC close to cost of equity. Revenue growth anchored to the ~56% YoY most recent acceleration tapering toward 15-20% by year 10; FCF margins expand from current ~47% toward 35-45% terminal operating margins reflecting heavy SBC normalization and operating leverage in the software model. Capex intensity remains minimal at <1% of revenue consistent with asset-light software infrastructure business.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin82.4%
Operating Margin31.6%
Net Margin36.3%
ROIC15.4%
ROE-1.8%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 7.11
Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.29x
Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 0.8%
Altman Z-Score151.66 (Safe)
Piotroski F-Score7/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR30.5% CAGR
Earnings CAGR178.3% CAGR
Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.39
Segment Breadth2/2 growing (100%)
Quarterly TrendRev↑, Margin↑, WC↓, Exp↓
Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Revenue Breakdown — FY2025

By Segment

Government Operating Segment53.7%
Commercial46.3%

By Geography

Geographic Concentration Risk50.0%
UNITED STATES37.1%
Rest Of World8.1%
UNITED KINGDOM4.8%
Total Revenue
$9.0B
Fiscal Year 2025

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Analyst Price Targets

Avg Target (Last Quarter)$199.10
Analysts Covering (Quarter)10
Avg Target (Last Year)$178.45
Analysts (Year)33

Leadership & Governance

CEOAlex Karp(Founder) · 23 years
Compensation0% performance-based
Insider ActivityBuying
Capital AllocationROIC 15.4% vs WACC 14.1%
Earnings Beat Rate91% (20/22)

◆ Company Profile

Palantir Technologies Inc. builds and deploys software platforms for the intelligence community to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.

CEO
Alexander C. Karp
Employees
4001
Headquarters
Denver, CO, US
IPO Date
September 30, 2020
Exchange
NASDAQ

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

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ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+
MethodologyAll ScoresCrucible BriefsPerformance@KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.

© 2026 Kaladin Capital Intelligence — Conviction Through Scrutiny