RCL RCL

Name: RCL Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored March 19, 2026

Price at analysis: $280.23

Crucible Score

60.6

C+

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

67.2

B-

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

52.6

C-

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — RCL

Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) shows solid operational fundamentals with strong management effectiveness and growth prospects, but trades at a modest 7% discount to fair value that limits upside potential. The company's biggest vulnerability lies in its poor diversification profile, leaving it exposed to cruise industry cyclicality. RCL needs to demonstrate more consistent earnings delivery beyond its current 72% beat rate to justify higher valuations.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

66.2

Growth Profile

73.3

Moat Durability⚠

66.0

Management Effectiveness

73.6

Diversification & Resilience⚠

31.5

Market Position

72.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (31.5)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

54.2

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

26.8

Relative Valuation

76.1

Growth-Adjusted Value

52.5

Historical Valuation

56.0

Macro Context

72.5

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$185.42

Base Case

$298.56

Bull Case

$442.18

Price at Analysis

$280.23

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$185.42	4.0%	24.0%	15.5%
🟢 Base	$298.56	6.0%	27.0%	14.5%
🟢 Bull	$442.18	8.0%	30.0%	13.5%

Key Assumptions: WACC is elevated at 13.5-15.5% reflecting RCL's high beta of 1.93 with a 5.75% ERP, plus significant leverage (~$22B debt vs ~$10B equity). Revenue growth anchored off the most recent $17.9B base, with post-recovery normalization to low-to-mid single digit growth. Capex intensity remains high at ~27% of revenue given ongoing fleet expansion (new ship deliveries), while the near-zero effective tax rate reflects RCL's favorable international tax structure. Operating margins projected to stabilize around 24-30% terminal range versus the most recent 27.4%, acknowledging the strong recovery trajectory but also cyclical risk in consumer discretionary travel.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin46.8%

Operating Margin27.4%

Net Margin23.8%

ROIC14.8%

ROE-6.7%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 0.18

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.29x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 29.2%

Altman Z-Score2.21 (Grey)

Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR85.0% CAGR

Earnings CAGR23.9% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 2.90

Segment Breadth2/2 growing (100%)

Quarterly TrendRev∆, Margin∆, WC↓, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOJason Liberty · 5 years

CEO Ownership7.0%

Compensation95% performance-based

Insider ActivitySelling

Capital AllocationROIC 14.8% vs WACC 3.5%

Earnings Beat Rate72% (13/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 19, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.