RIO RIO

Name: RIO Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored April 20, 2026

Price at analysis: $100.15

Crucible Score

50.4

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

51.3

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

49.2

D+

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — RIO

Rio Tinto (RIO) trades at a 7% discount to fair value despite commanding the sector's strongest market position, though persistent growth challenges and inconsistent earnings execution limit upside potential. The mining giant's below-average earnings beat rate of 48% reflects operational volatility that undermines investor confidence. Watch for commodity price stabilization and management's ability to deliver more predictable results.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

64.5

Growth Profile

29.8

Moat Durability

42.0

Management Effectiveness⚠

55.5

Diversification & Resilience⚠

56.0

Market Position

72.0

Weakest dimension: Growth Profile (29.8)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

58.5

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

34.5

Relative Valuation

95.0

Growth-Adjusted Value

22.0

Historical Valuation

5.5

Macro Context

76.5

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$72.48

Base Case

$107.63

Bull Case

$155.30

Price at Analysis

$100.15

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$72.48	-1.0%	27.0%	8.8%
🟢 Base	$107.63	2.0%	32.0%	7.5%
🟢 Bull	$155.30	4.0%	38.0%	7.0%

Key Assumptions: RIO is a cyclical miner with 5-year revenue range of $54B-$63B and operating margins of 26-47%; base case assumes modest 2% revenue CAGR reflecting normalized commodity prices with 32% terminal operating margin near the lower-middle of the historical range. WACC uses CAPM with 0.64 beta and 5.0% ERP for bear/base scenarios and 5.5% ERP sensitivity; capex intensity anchored at ~12.5% of revenue consistent with recent years trending from 20% down to 12%. D&A is projected at ~8% of revenue declining slightly, and FCF conversion improves modestly as capex normalizes.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin27.1%

Operating Margin26.3%

Net Margin17.3%

ROIC10.1%

ROE22.4%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.44

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.47x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 21.4%

Altman Z-Score3.79 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score5/9 (Mixed)

Growth

Revenue CAGR-2.4% CAGR

Earnings CAGR-16.5% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 2.10

Segment Breadth1/3 growing (33%)

Quarterly TrendRev↑, Margin↓↓, WC↓, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityMixed

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOJakob Stausholm · 5 years

Insider ActivityNeutral

Capital AllocationROIC 10.1% vs WACC 3.4%

Earnings Beat Rate48% (11/22)

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Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted April 20, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.