SEMR logo

SEMR SEMR

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored March 24, 2026
Price at analysis: $11.94
Crucible Score
51.6
C
Quality × Value Composite
KQI — Quality
55.6
C
Fundamental Quality Index
KVI — Value
46.7
D+
Valuation Attractiveness Index
Crucible Verdict — SEMR

SemGroup Corporation (SEMR) trades at a 25% discount to fair value despite strong competitive positioning, with an impressive 84 Moat Durability score anchoring its investment case. The company's 76 Growth Profile contrasts sharply with poor management effectiveness (28) and minimal diversification, creating execution risk around its expansion plans. SEMR's valuation gap narrows significantly if leadership can deliver on growth opportunities.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality⚠
42.9
Growth Profile⚠
76.4
Moat Durability
83.5
Management Effectiveness⚠
28.5
Diversification & Resilience
28.2
Market Position
52.0
Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (28.2)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety
65.3
FCF Yield & Cash Returns
22.7
Relative Valuation
58.1
Growth-Adjusted Value
35.0
Historical Valuation
50.0
Macro Context
12.9

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case
$8.42
Base Case
$14.87
Bull Case
$24.15
Price at Analysis
$11.94
ScenarioFair ValueRev CAGR (5yr)Terminal MarginWACC
🔴 Bear$8.4210.0%8.0%13.0%
🟢 Base$14.8714.0%12.0%12.4%
🟢 Bull$24.1518.0%16.0%11.9%
Key Assumptions: SEMR has grown revenue from ~$188M to ~$444M over 5 years (~19% CAGR) with improving but still thin operating margins moving from negative to roughly breakeven/slightly positive. WACC is calculated using CAPM with 4.39% risk-free rate, 1.55 beta, and 5.5% ERP yielding ~12.9% base WACC, with scenario adjustments of +/-50bps. Key judgment: margins should expand meaningfully as the SaaS platform scales, but the company has yet to demonstrate sustained profitability, so terminal operating margins are kept conservative at 8-16% across scenarios with revenue growth decelerating from historical rates.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin80.5%
Operating Margin-5.1%
Net Margin-4.3%
ROIC-5.8%
ROE1.4%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 2.11
Cash Conversion
Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 0.4%
Altman Z-Score7.70 (Safe)
Piotroski F-Score3/9 (Weak)

Growth

Revenue CAGR23.9% CAGR
Earnings CAGR346.7% CAGR
Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.37
Segment BreadthInsufficient segments
Quarterly TrendRev→+15%, Margin↓↓, WC↓, Exp↓
Earnings CredibilityMixed

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

Insider ActivityNeutral
Earnings Beat Rate30% (7/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+
MethodologyAll ScoresCrucible BriefsPerformance@KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 24, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.

© 2026 Kaladin Capital Intelligence — Conviction Through Scrutiny