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Shopify Inc. SHOP

TechnologySoftware - ApplicationNASDAQ📅 Scored March 24, 2026
Price at analysis: $118.42
Crucible Score
59.8
C+
Quality × Value Composite
KQI — Quality
68.3
B
Fundamental Quality Index
KVI — Value
49.4
D+
Valuation Attractiveness Index
Crucible Verdict — SHOP

Shopify Inc. demonstrates solid operational execution with an 84 Growth Profile score and 85% earnings beat rate under founder-CEO Tobias Lütke's two-decade leadership. SHOP trades at a modest 5% premium to fair value despite strong fundamentals, though Management Effectiveness lags at 49. The e-commerce platform's expansion into new verticals should drive sustained growth as digital commerce penetration deepens.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

â—† KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality
64.7
Growth Profile
83.6
Moat Durability
76.0
Management Effectivenessâš 
49.2
Diversification & Resilience
79.2
Market Position
68.0
Weakest dimension: Management Effectiveness (49.2)

â—† KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety
53.0
FCF Yield & Cash Returns
20.2
Relative Valuation
95.0
Growth-Adjusted Value
50.0
Historical Valuation
39.2
Macro Context
5.0

â—† DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case
$68.52
Base Case
$112.37
Bull Case
$175.89
Price at Analysis
$118.42
ScenarioFair ValueRev CAGR (5yr)Terminal MarginWACC
🔴 Bear$68.5214.0%15.0%21.3%
🟢 Base$112.3718.0%18.0%20.3%
🟢 Bull$175.8922.0%22.0%19.3%
Key Assumptions: WACC derived from CAPM using 4.39% risk-free rate, 2.90 beta, and 5.5% ERP yielding ~20.3% base WACC reflecting Shopify's high-beta profile. Revenue growth anchored on ~25% trailing CAGR decelerating toward 12-15% by year 10 as the platform matures. Operating margins expand from ~13% currently toward 15-22% terminal range depending on scenario, reflecting the shift toward higher-margin subscription and software revenue, with capex remaining minimal at ~0.3% of revenue consistent with asset-light SaaS model.

â—† Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin48.1%
Operating Margin12.7%
Net Margin10.7%
ROIC8.5%
ROE-20.0%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 5.92
Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.63x
Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 0.2%
Altman Z-Score57.25 (Safe)
Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR25.8% CAGR
Earnings CAGR40.1% CAGR
Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.46
Segment Breadth2/2 growing (100%)
Quarterly TrendMargin∆, Exp↓
Earnings CredibilityTends to Beat

◆ Revenue Breakdown — FY2025

By Segment

Service76.2%
Subscription and Circulation23.8%

By Geography

United States64.3%
EMEA19.2%
APAC10.0%
Canada5.4%
Latin America1.1%
Total Revenue
$8.5B
Fiscal Year 2024

â—† Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Analyst Price Targets

Avg Target (Last Quarter)$159.77
Analysts Covering (Quarter)22
Avg Target (Last Year)$162.13
Analysts (Year)46

Leadership & Governance

CEOTobias Lütke(Founder) · 20 years
Insider ActivityNeutral
Capital AllocationROIC 8.5% vs WACC 20.5%
Earnings Beat Rate85% (19/22)

â—† Company Profile

Shopify Inc. , a commerce company, provides a commerce platform and services in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.

CEO
Tobias Lutke
Employees
8100
Headquarters
Ottawa, ON, CA
IPO Date
May 20, 2015
Exchange
NASDAQ

â—† Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Technology companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+
MethodologyAll ScoresCrucible BriefsPerformance@KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 24, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.

© 2026 Kaladin Capital Intelligence — Conviction Through Scrutiny