SMCI SMCI

Name: SMCI Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored April 7, 2026

Price at analysis: $22.01

Crucible Score

61.3

C+

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

59.0

C+

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

64.2

C+

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — SMCI

Super Micro Computer presents a mixed picture with a C+ Crucible Score of 61.3, held back by weak financial quality (46) despite strong market positioning (69) and decent growth prospects (66). SMCI trades at a 31% discount to fair value, offering compelling upside potential if the company can address its balance sheet concerns. The key catalyst will be management's ability to convert market strength into sustained financial performance.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

45.6

Growth Profile

65.5

Moat Durability

66.6

Management Effectiveness⚠

58.2

Diversification & Resilience⚠

48.0

Market Position

69.0

Weakest dimension: Financial Quality (45.6)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

66.8

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

33.6

Relative Valuation

85.6

Growth-Adjusted Value

71.4

Historical Valuation

66.4

Macro Context

86.0

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$14.52

Base Case

$28.75

Bull Case

$51.38

Price at Analysis

$22.01

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$14.52	6.0%	4.5%	14.3%
🟢 Base	$28.75	12.0%	6.0%	13.3%
🟢 Bull	$51.38	18.0%	7.5%	12.3%

Key Assumptions: SMCI has shown explosive but volatile revenue growth (from $3.6B to $22B in 5 years) driven by AI server demand, but with thin and compressing operating margins (from 10.7% peak to 5.7%) and highly erratic working capital swings that produced negative FCF in two of five years. WACC is elevated at 13.3% base reflecting high beta of 1.63 and an equity risk premium of 5.5% appropriate for a volatile hardware company with recent accounting/governance concerns. Terminal margins are kept modest (4.5%-7.5%) reflecting SMCI's commodity-like hardware assembly business model with limited pricing power, and revenue growth decelerates materially as the AI infrastructure buildout matures.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin8.0%

Operating Margin3.7%

Net Margin3.1%

ROIC6.8%

ROE12.5%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetD/E: 0.70*, CR: 1.70* (* = TTM)

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.50x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 0.6%

Altman Z-Score2.18 (Grey)

Piotroski F-Score3/9 (Weak)

Growth

Revenue CAGR57.6% CAGR

Earnings CAGR75.0% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 1.01

Segment Breadth1/2 growing (50%)

Quarterly TrendRev↘+8%, Margin↓↓, WC↓

Earnings CredibilityMixed

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOCharles Liang · 28 years

CEO Ownership16.1%

Insider ActivityNeutral

Capital AllocationROIC 6.8% vs WACC 1.0%

Earnings Beat Rate61% (13/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted April 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.