SPG SPG

Name: SPG Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored March 19, 2026

Price at analysis: $182.28

Crucible Score

68.2

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

70.5

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

65.4

B-

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — SPG

Simon Property Group shows solid operational fundamentals with an impressive 88 Moat Durability score and strong management execution under CEO Katrina Helmkamp, but the 12 Diversification & Resilience rating exposes significant concentration risk in retail real estate. SPG trades near fair value at $182 versus a $190 base case, making the investment case dependent on the retail sector's continued recovery trajectory.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

72.0

Growth Profile⚠

62.4

Moat Durability⚠

87.7

Management Effectiveness

72.6

Diversification & Resilience⚠

12.0

Market Position

62.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (12.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

57.1

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

57.8

Relative Valuation

58.8

Growth-Adjusted Value

83.7

Historical Valuation

86.4

Macro Context

77.5

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$131.52

Base Case

$189.74

Bull Case

$265.38

Price at Analysis

$182.28

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$131.52	2.5%	46.0%	11.8%
🟢 Base	$189.74	4.0%	49.0%	11.1%
🟢 Bull	$265.38	5.5%	52.0%	10.4%

Key Assumptions: SPG is modeled as a REIT with near-zero effective tax rate (~2%), reflecting historical pass-through structure. WACC is derived using CAPM with 4.39% risk-free rate, 1.40 beta, and 4.5-5.5% equity risk premium across scenarios, blended with after-tax cost of debt (~4.5%) at ~55% debt weighting given SPG's heavy leverage (~$29B debt vs ~$59B market cap). Revenue growth anchored to historical 4-5% CAGR with operating margins sustained near 48-52% reflecting premium mall portfolio resilience; capex intensity at ~13% of revenue reflects ongoing redevelopment needs.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin85.7%

Operating Margin49.9%

Net Margin72.5%

ROIC8.9%

ROE66.9%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 0.19

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.70x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 14.3%

Altman Z-Score1.36 (Distress)

Piotroski F-Score7/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR5.6% CAGR

Earnings CAGR24.3% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 3.87

Segment BreadthInsufficient segments

Quarterly TrendRev↑, Margin↑, Cash↓, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityTends to Beat

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOKatrina Helmkamp · 3 years

CEO Ownership7.3%

Compensation97% performance-based

Insider ActivityNeutral

Capital AllocationROIC 8.9% vs WACC 2.6%

Earnings Beat Rate87% (20/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

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ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 19, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.