TJX TJX

Name: TJX Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored March 18, 2026

Price at analysis: $159.21

Crucible Score

60.7

C+

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

72.5

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

46.3

D+

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — TJX

TJX delivers solid operational execution with an impressive 97% earnings beat rate under CEO Ernie Herrman's decade-long tenure, supported by strong financial quality and durable competitive moats in off-price retail. The stock trades near fair value despite weak diversification metrics that expose TJX to retail sector volatility. Management's consistent performance suggests continued market share gains in discount apparel.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

80.2

Growth Profile

61.3

Moat Durability⚠

79.4

Management Effectiveness

76.5

Diversification & Resilience

46.5

Market Position

58.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (46.5)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

59.8

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

35.5

Relative Valuation

54.3

Growth-Adjusted Value

49.9

Historical Valuation

8.3

Macro Context

46.2

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$118.52

Base Case

$168.37

Bull Case

$228.14

Price at Analysis

$159.21

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$118.52	4.0%	10.5%	8.5%
🟢 Base	$168.37	5.5%	11.5%	8.1%
🟢 Bull	$228.14	7.0%	12.5%	7.7%

Key Assumptions: Revenue grew at ~5.6% CAGR over the trailing 5 years with operating margins expanding from 9.8% to 11.9%. WACC is derived using CAPM with 4.39% risk-free rate, 0.74 beta, and 5.5% ERP (base), yielding ~8.1% base WACC; bear uses 6.0% ERP and bull uses 5.0% ERP. Capex intensity averaged ~3.2% of revenue; D&A-to-revenue ~2.1%; FCF conversion remains strong across all scenarios with terminal margins reflecting the recent improvement trend in base/bull and modest reversion in bear.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin31.1%

Operating Margin12.0%

Net Margin9.1%

ROIC21.4%

ROE50.2%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.14

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.89x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 3.2%

Altman Z-Score6.49 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR5.6% CAGR

Earnings CAGR13.7% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 2.16

Segment Breadth4/4 growing (100%)

Quarterly TrendRev↓, Margin↑, WC↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOErnie Herrman · 10 years

CEO Ownership< 1%

Compensation83% performance-based

Insider ActivityNeutral

Capital AllocationROIC 21.4% vs WACC 8.5%

Earnings Beat Rate97% (21/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

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ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 18, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.