TM TM

Name: TM Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored April 20, 2026

Price at analysis: $217.20

Crucible Score

59.7

C+

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

62.1

C+

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

56.9

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — TM

TM presents a mixed picture with strong earnings execution (80% beat rate) and solid growth prospects offset by weak financial quality metrics dragging the overall score to 59.7. The stock trades at a 5% discount to fair value despite management's 8-year tenure and insider buying activity. Financial quality improvement remains the key catalyst for multiple expansion.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

47.0

Growth Profile

73.6

Moat Durability

66.6

Management Effectiveness⚠

67.4

Diversification & Resilience⚠

56.0

Market Position

57.0

Weakest dimension: Financial Quality (47.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

54.7

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

28.7

Relative Valuation

95.0

Growth-Adjusted Value

80.0

Historical Valuation

13.5

Macro Context

78.0

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$148.52

Base Case

$228.75

Bull Case

$335.18

Price at Analysis

$217.20

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$148.52	3.0%	8.0%	6.5%
🟢 Base	$228.75	5.0%	10.0%	6.0%
🟢 Bull	$335.18	7.0%	12.0%	5.6%

Key Assumptions: TM's financials are in JPY millions; revenue grew from ~27T to ~48T JPY over 5 years (~12% CAGR) with operating margins averaging 8-12%. WACC is low (5.6-6.5%) reflecting TM's low beta of 0.36 applied to a 5.5% ERP plus 4.32% risk-free rate. Capex consistently exceeds operating cash flow on a reported basis due to financial services segment; core auto capex assumed at ~11% of revenue with FCF conversion improving modestly over the projection period. Bear case assumes margin compression to 8% from trade headwinds, base assumes stable 10% margins with moderate growth, bull assumes EV transition gains and margin expansion to 12%.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin17.6%

Operating Margin8.6%

Net Margin7.3%

ROIC4.2%

ROE9.5%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetD/E: 1.08*, CR: 1.26* (* = TTM)

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.04x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 10.9%

Altman Z-Score1.71 (Distress)

Piotroski F-Score7/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR15.3% CAGR

Earnings CAGR20.9% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 1.49

Segment Breadth6/6 growing (100%)

Quarterly TrendRev↑, Margin↓↓, WC↓, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityTends to Beat

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOTan Sri Mohamed Azmin Ali · 8 years

Insider ActivityBuying

Capital AllocationROIC 4.2% vs WACC 0.2%

Earnings Beat Rate80% (16/20)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted April 20, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.