TransMedics Group Inc. TMDX

Name: TMDX Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored March 14, 2026

Price at analysis: $105.13

Crucible Score

63.9

B-

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

73.9

B+

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

51.8

C-

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — TMDX

TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) presents a classic growth story trading at a discount, with strong fundamentals across quality metrics but underwhelming value scores creating a 13% upside to fair value. The organ transplant technology company benefits from CEO Todd Pope's performance-aligned compensation and consistent earnings beats, though limited diversification remains a key vulnerability. TMDX offers compelling risk-adjusted returns for investors comfortable with niche healthcare exposure.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

79.5

Growth Profile⚠

77.3

Moat Durability

72.5

Management Effectiveness

73.7

Diversification & Resilience⚠

49.5

Market Position

76.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (49.5)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

53.9

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

28.4

Relative Valuation

73.8

Growth-Adjusted Value

50.0

Historical Valuation

67.5

Macro Context

32.0

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$62.18

Base Case

$118.45

Bull Case

$198.72

Price at Analysis

$105.13

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$62.18	12.0%	18.0%	15.9%
🟢 Base	$118.45	18.0%	22.0%	14.9%
🟢 Bull	$198.72	24.0%	27.0%	13.9%

Key Assumptions: TMDX has demonstrated explosive revenue growth from $30M to $605M over five years with operating margins inflecting from deeply negative to ~18%. WACC is elevated at ~15% reflecting high beta of 1.96 applied to a 5.5% ERP plus 4.39% risk-free rate. Tax rate assumed at 15% near-term given NOL carryforwards, normalizing over time; capex intensity moderating from peak investment phase to ~8% of revenue as the OCS fleet scales. Net debt of approximately -$18M (cash exceeds debt marginally) is incorporated into equity bridge.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin59.9%

Operating Margin17.9%

Net Margin31.4%

ROIC9.7%

ROE30.7%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 7.14

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.70x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 9.8%

Altman Z-Score5.46 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR111.5% CAGR

Earnings CAGRInsufficient data

Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.84

Segment Breadth2/2 growing (100%)

Quarterly TrendRev→+32%, Margin↑, Cash↓, WC↓, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityTends to Beat

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOTodd M. Pope · 6 years

CEO Ownership6.2%

Compensation88% performance-based

Insider ActivityStrong Buying

Capital AllocationROIC 9.7% vs WACC 2.3%

Earnings Beat Rate79% (17/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 14, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.