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Toast, Inc. TOST

TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureNYSE📅 Scored April 5, 2026
Price at analysis: $27.16
Crucible Score
57.4
C
Quality × Value Composite
KQI — Quality
62.0
C+
Fundamental Quality Index
KVI — Value
51.7
C-
Valuation Attractiveness Index
Crucible Verdict — TOST

Toast Inc. (TOST) shows solid operational execution with a 79 Growth Profile score and 72% earnings beat rate, but TOST's 28 Diversification & Resilience score exposes dangerous concentration risk in the restaurant sector. The stock trades at a 12% discount to fair value despite strong fundamentals, creating opportunity for investors comfortable with single-industry exposure.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality
61.5
Growth Profile⚠
79.1
Moat Durability
67.5
Management Effectiveness⚠
54.6
Diversification & Resilience
28.0
Market Position
58.0
Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (28.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety
57.5
FCF Yield & Cash Returns
33.2
Relative Valuation
56.2
Growth-Adjusted Value
35.0
Historical Valuation
94.5
Macro Context
46.2

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case
$18.52
Base Case
$30.41
Bull Case
$47.83
Price at Analysis
$27.16
ScenarioFair ValueRev CAGR (5yr)Terminal MarginWACC
🔴 Bear$18.5212.0%8.0%15.3%
🟢 Base$30.4115.0%10.0%15.3%
🟢 Bull$47.8318.0%13.0%15.3%
Key Assumptions: WACC of 15.34% derived from CAPM using 4.39% risk-free rate, 5.6% ERP, and beta of 1.95, reflecting TOST's high-growth software risk profile. Revenue growth anchored on historical ~29% CAGR over 5 years but decelerating as the company scales from $6.2B base; operating margins projected to expand from current ~5% toward 8-13% terminal levels given the shift from hardware-heavy revenue mix toward higher-margin SaaS and fintech streams. Low capex intensity (~0.9% of revenue) maintained consistent with asset-light software model, and a modest 5% normalized tax rate reflects utilization of substantial NOL carryforwards over the projection period.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin25.8%
Operating Margin4.8%
Net Margin5.6%
ROIC11.3%
ROE6.2%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 2.75
Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.78x
Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 0.9%
Altman Z-Score11.55 (Safe)
Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR37.8% CAGR
Earnings CAGRInsufficient data
Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.62
Segment Breadth2/2 growing (100%)
Quarterly TrendRev→+22%, Margin↑
Earnings CredibilityTends to Beat

◆ Revenue Breakdown — FY2025

By Segment

Technology Service84.3%
License15.7%

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Analyst Price Targets

Avg Target (Last Quarter)$39.07
Analysts Covering (Quarter)15
Avg Target (Last Year)$45.32
Analysts (Year)31

Leadership & Governance

CEO Ownership43.7%
Compensation95% performance-based
Insider ActivitySelling
Capital AllocationROIC 11.3% vs WACC 15.0%
Earnings Beat Rate72% (17/22)

◆ Company Profile

Toast, Inc. operates a cloud-based and digital technology platform for the restaurant industry in the United States and Ireland.

CEO
Aman Narang
Employees
5700
Headquarters
Boston, MA, US
IPO Date
September 22, 2021
Exchange
NYSE

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

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ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+
MethodologyAll ScoresCrucible BriefsPerformance@KaladinCI

Analysis conducted April 5, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.

© 2026 Kaladin Capital Intelligence — Conviction Through Scrutiny